Egypt-Israel tensions have been escalating slowly, and they could reach a kind of boiling point. The exchange of fire on Monday and the killing of an Egyptian soldier add a new tragedy to the already simmering tensions. The incident could not have occurred at a worse time.
On May 5, Hamas fired rockets at the Kerem Shalom crossing, killing four Israeli soldiers. The IDF was already preparing for a possible incursion into Rafah on the Gaza border with Egypt. Egypt had opposed this incursion and it had likely pressured the US to prevent it.
However, Israel called Cairo’s bluff and moved ahead, sending the 162nd division, with its 401st armored brigade and infantry, into eastern Rafah on May 7. The troops took the Gazan side of the Rafah crossing and Egypt closed its side of the crossing.
This caused aid to pile up in Egypt. Eventually, a phone call between US President Joe Biden and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi got the aid flowing again. The phone call was on Friday. Aid began flowing on Sunday, May 26. This might have reduced tensions. But many other irons in the fire caused issues between Israel and Egypt.
Possibility of tunnels to Egypt
The possibility that tunnels will be found from Hamas in Rafah to Egypt will be an embarrassment for Cairo. However, it is now clear Hamas has been acquiring a mass of weapons over the years. They must have come from somewhere.
At the same time, Egypt wants the bombing and fighting in Rafah to stop. An Israeli airstrike on the evening of May 26 killed Gazans, even though it was a precision strike that targeted two Hamas members. Egypt has joined other countries in critiquing the strike. The shooting incident on May 27 adds to the challenges the Egyptian government faces now in handling the Gaza conflict.
Several things are now apparent. Egypt is very sensitive to critique of how it mediated the hostage talks. Israel appears displeased by what looks like Egypt not being clear during the talks. At the same time Egypt has sought to play both sides since October 7.
Egypt is supposed to oppose Hamas terrorism. Hamas is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt opposes. However, it seems since Oct. 7 that Cairo has walked a fine line and that it doesn’t want to be seen as too close to Israel. Egypt didn’t mind things the other way around when Israel was backing Cairo against terror in Sinai. But when it comes to Hamas, there is something sensitive.
The fact that Iran has sought reconciliation with Egypt and Cairo’s ties to Damascus and other movements in the region may mean that Egypt is willing now to be closer to Hamas, at least slightly. Egyptian media has seemingly downplayed the shooting initially, but things could change quickly.
According to Al-Ain media in the UAE, the “the Egyptian Armed Forces are investigating a shooting on the border near Rafah, which resulted in the martyrdom of one of its security personnel.” The military spokesman for the Egyptian army, Colonel Staff Colonel Gharib Abdel Hafez, said on Monday that the Egyptian armed forces are conducting an investigation by the competent authorities into the “shooting incident” in the border area in Rafah.One person has been ”martyred,” Egyptian media said. “Egyptian-Israeli relations in general are witnessing unprecedented tension since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas on October 7, following an attack launched by the movement [Hamas] on settlements [Israeli communities] surrounding the Gaza Strip,” the report said.
Sisi has been clear since October that he is concerned about escalation. The incident on May 27 is an example of the concerns. Egypt does not want its population to begin mass protests or anything that might undermine the government.This is part of the reason it wants to play both sides. It is being very cautious so far. However, as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others are increasingly harsh on Israel, Cairo might take from their playbook.