These are unstable times in the Middle East. Israel’s eight-month war against Hamas in Gaza continues, the skirmishes on the Lebanon-Israel border between the Hezbollah terrorist organization and the Israeli army threaten to escalate into a wider escalation, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue to attack ships and threaten global commerce in the Red Sea. Orchestrating much of this is Iran, as it supports and funds terrorist organizations throughout the region while continuing to enrich uranium at near weapons-grade levels.
Israel media reported Thursday that the country’s intelligence agencies recognized activities related to nuclear development that could bring the Islamic Republic, Israel’s arch-enemy, closer than ever to an atomic bomb.
For years, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war against each other. Israel’s military is believed to be behind hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian targets in the Middle East, in addition to cyberattacks against major infrastructure in the Islamic Republic. Iran is believed to be behind attacks against Israeli-operated oil tankers, attempts to abduct and kill Israelis in countries like Cyprus and Turkey in recent months, and the steady supply of weapons to its proxies.
The shadow war transformed earlier this year in April when Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel. Firing more than 300 missiles and suicide drones at the country, it was a departure from its doctrine of indirectly attacking Israel through its many proxies situated on the borders of the Jewish state. Iran’s assault was in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. It was the closest the two countries have been to a direct confrontation after decades of tensions and accusations.
Israel is not alone in its perception of Iran as the greatest threat to regional security. Earlier this week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hosted his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, in Washington. According to a statement released by the Pentagon after their meeting, the US and Israel will “stand together against Iranian and Iranian-supported attacks against Israel and destabilizing activities throughout the Middle East.”
All eyes are now on the Israeli-Lebanese border. There have been American attempts to de-escalate the situation, but the violent exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel could combust into a wider war. Iran has been nurturing the terrorist organization for years, believed to be bolstering its abilities in order to be used in the event of a direct conflict with Israel.
Iran's strategy
“Iran intended to use Hezbollah to be used in the event that Israel attacks its nuclear facilities,” said Dr. Menahem Merhavy, a research fellow and expert on Iran at the Harry S. Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “Iran does not want Hezbollah to currently enter a larger conflict with Israel and wants to save it for more important matters, Gaza not being one of them.”
Hezbollah began firing at Israel a day after Hamas’s surprise attack against Israel, saying it was supporting the Palestinian terrorist organization in its struggle. This has created a major headache for Israel, which evacuated residents from the border with Lebanon. Without operating against Hezbollah in such a way that will distance its combatants from the area, many have said they will not return to their homes.
“This has resulted in a very problematic equation that will be difficult to extract from,” Merhavy told The Media Line. “It is now a question of who will blink first.”
Israel, the US, and other members of the international community have been largely consumed in recent months by the conflict in Gaza and on Israel’s border with Lebanon. This has diverted attention from the Iranian nuclear program, which Tehran has appeared to have taken advantage of.
According to a statement released by the International Atomic Agency (IAEA) earlier this month, Iran has started up new cascades of advanced centrifuges and plans to install others.
“During any other time, such a statement would make a lot of noise,” Merhavy said. “Iran can already be considered a threshold state, something that has been Israel’s nightmare for years.”
Iran insists its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes, a claim Israel, the US, and others rule out. Many fear that a war between Hezbollah and Israel will bring Iranian involvement, be it by Iranian or Israeli initiation.
Israel’s preoccupation in the Gaza Strip and its entanglement in Lebanon have likely rerouted its focus from the Iranian nuclear aspirations it has focused much of its efforts on in recent years. Israel’s current distraction also comes after a year of internal political upheaval as a result of a government attempt to promote a contentious judicial reform that sparked an unprecedented wave of protests in the country. Protests against the government have picked up again in recent weeks, as growing numbers of Israelis feel dissatisfied with the handling of the war in Gaza.
“There is almost a feeling of euphoria in Iran that the theory in which the Jewish state will gradually implode on itself might actually materialize,” said Merhavy. “This could push Iran to engage in something more adventurous.”
Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf, some of which have normalized relations with Israel, are also carefully monitoring developments.
“They are anxiously on the sidelines,” said Merhavy. “The countries that have relations with Israel will be fearful to help it, and if they will, they will do so very carefully, not to upset anyone and not to be seen as openly cooperating with Israel.”
Speculation that Israel would need Gulf air space and perhaps access to military bases in the area to execute an offensive on Iran would put those countries in a very difficult position.
“It is important to remember that even before the war, there was a process of harmonization between Iran and the Gulf states,” said Ariel Admoni, Qatar researcher and doctoral candidate at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University, pointing to the Chinese mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran as one example. “The Iranians have extensive relations in the Gulf, and a lot of Iranian money is present there.”
Israel normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Morocco in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords. One of the main catalysts for the agreement was a mutual fear of Iran as a growing threat to the region. These relations are now being tested as Israel finds itself fighting a bloody war against Hamas with a mounting Palestinian death toll that puts those Gulf states in a difficult position. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have not normalized relations with Israel. Qatar has played a major role in mediation attempts between Hamas and Israel as Hamas’ major supporter in the region. Within the Gulf states, there have been tensions regarding Iranian behavior.
“After a period of discord, the war in Gaza helped synchronize the messaging amongst the Gulf states, mostly focusing on their role as facilitators of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians,” said Admoni. “There have been many meetings between them in an attempt to coordinate the message, and things that in the past caused disagreement are no longer a source of conflict.”
Recent reports have suggested that the UAE will be willing to participate in a postwar Gaza security force. The war in Gaza is not near conclusion, and these reports may be premature.
“Countries like Qatar emphasize that a solution to the conflict needs to end with a Palestinian state,” Admoni told The Media Line. “The Gulf states, including Qatar, will not rush to sign anything or make commitments for fear of getting dragged into the ‘muddy’ mess of Gaza. But while Qatar will continue to remain highly involved because of its standing with Hamas, the Saudis and the Emiratis are far more reserved.”
As the region is at a major intersection, each country is trying to position itself to its best advantage, hoping to emerge with as few scars as possible.