The Iran-backed Houthis have put on a kind of brave face after facing Israeli retaliation for the attack on Friday on Tel Aviv that killed one Israeli and wounded 10 others. The group faced a large retaliatory strike on Saturday.Now the Houthis say they will continue their attacks. Their media and officials played up an attempted attack on Eilat overnight between July 20 and July 21.The pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen media blanketed its coverage with stories about the Houthis. One article says that “a special Yemeni source confirms to Al-Mayadeen that there is continuous coordination between Yemen, the resistance in the Gaza Strip, and the resistance axis in the region, stressing that this coordination has reached an advanced level.” This means that the Houthis expect to coordinate more attacks with militias in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Houthi officials told reporters that the Israeli retaliation will not deter the Houthis from further attacks. In fact they claim that this will strengthen their resolve. Other articles highlighted claims that Eilat has lost money because of the Houthi attacks over the last nine months.
“The Yemeni Armed Forces [Houthis] carried out two qualitative operations in Eilat and the Red Sea, with several ballistic missiles and drones, in victory for the injustice of the Palestinian people and their mujahideen, and response to the American-British-Israeli aggression against Yemen,” a third report claimed.
A fourth report at Al-Mayadeen said that Saudi Arabia will not allow its airspace to be used for attacks on the Houthis. Clearly the group wants Riyadh to remain outside the conflict. Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen in 2015 and fought the Houthis for years before coming to an agreement on a ceasefire.
Continued attacks on ships
Now Saudi Arabia has reconciled with Iran and it doesn’t want to be involved in a new round of conflict. On the other hand Iran seems to have pushed Kataib Hezbollah, one of its proxies in Iraq, to threaten the Saudis recently. This is likely a message to Riyadh to remain outside these conflicts or suffer attacks.The Houthis also continued attacks on ships over the weekend. Al-Arabiya reported that “a commercial vessel was attacked twice by drones off the coast of Yemen on Saturday but proceeded with its voyage despite sustaining damage, a British maritime security agency said.” It noted that “The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), run by the British navy, said the attack happened 64 nautical miles northwest of Mokha, Yemen, near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The vessel was first hit by an uncrewed aerial system that exploded close by, causing minor damage, UKMTO said.”Throughout the region reports indicate the Houthis will “respond” to the Israeli retaliation. This is message discipline from the Houthis and their ability to communicate with regional media. They will not have to back up their claims. There are different narratives about what might come next.Al-Ain media in the UAE discussed this issue on July 21. “Further escalation or a tendency towards calm? This is a question that has been raised after the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv, and the subsequent Israeli response to Hodeidah, which has placed the Middle East on the ‘edge of a volcano’ whose lava could spread to the rest of the countries in the region,” the report noted.
Therefore the escalation by the Houthis on July 19 could be a curtain raiser to more escalation in the region. On the other hand the chances of a Gaza ceasefire could reduce tensions.