Despite reports of an imminent Iran attack on Israel, former CIA director and US CENTCOM Commander David Petraeus told Iran International on Tuesday that full-blown war was unlikely due to fears of possible destruction to both countries.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Israel should expect a harsh response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, which Israel has not taken responsibility for. Haniyeh was assassinated while in Tehran for the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
While he agreed that Iran would have to respond because of the blow to its national honor, Petraeus argued that neither it nor Israel wanted a war.
The fact Haniyeh was killed on the Iranian regime's watch was a "huge intelligence failure and… a security failure," Petraeus said in the interview. "They have to respond. But I don't think that Iran wants to get into a real direct back-and-forth war with Israel… And frankly, I don't think Israel wants to get in a real full-on war with Hezbollah or with Iran."
Petraeus said that the damage to both sides should a war break out would be "very, very substantial.”
The former CIA head noted on Monday that the most likely scenario involved two waves of attacks - one by Hezbollah and one by Iran and the several terrorist organizations it supports. However, US intelligence remains unclear about who will attack first and what type of attack each party intends to carry out.
Regarding the possible forms an Iranian response could take, General Petraeus said there was a "whole menu" of options.
“I'm sure they're looking at everything from trying to hit a military site…all the way up to hitting critical infrastructure or a major port or something like that. If that actually was to succeed, Israel would have to respond in a very massive way, not unlike the way that they responded to the Houthi drone attack… and they did enormous damage to the port of Hodeidah in Yemen.”
Houthis in Yemen
On July 20, Israel carried out 10 airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen, following the Houthi drone strike in Tel Aviv on July 19, during which one man was killed.
“My sense is that the Israeli intelligence services, once again, have demonstrated how thoroughly they have penetrated different elements inside Iran,” Petraeus said. “The most plausible explanation that I have heard of how this was carried out is that it was a result of a bomb planted months ago in the guest house where Haniyeh ultimately stayed… This is really quite extraordinary in a country that, in many respects, is viewed as a denied space to other intelligence services.”
Sources told The Jerusalem Post last week that the explosive device that killed Haniyeh was secretly smuggled into his guesthouse in Tehran in June.
General Petraeus also discussed whether he thought Pezeshkian might lead to reforms or changes within the Iranian government. He explained that Pezeshkian was unlikely to have any control over weapons sales to Russia or support for Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, or Shia militias in Iraq.
“What he might be able to do would be to reduce the role of the religious police in enforcing the hijab and that actually could provide some degree of relief for the people. It's possible he could carry out limited reforms of the economy" he told Iran International.
Petraeus did not feel there would be a breakthrough on the nuclear front.
“I suspect that the policy gets much tougher after the election, regardless of who is elected,” he said. “Donald Trump has said that he will reimpose some of the sanctions… I think that a Harris presidency will do the same. The truth is right now, in an election year, you're worried about the price of gasoline at the gas pump, and if they, for example, impose sanctions that reduce the ability of Iran to export 1.5 million barrels of oil and distillates, the price of gas is going to go up.”
However, he agreed that the US's options for handling the situation were limited.
“This continued effort of the US to leave the Middle East is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia,” he added.