Iran’s new Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi is pushing for closer ties with the Gulf countries, according to Iranian state media on Monday6. This push comes on the four-year anniversary of the Abraham Accords, which were signed in Washington on September 15, 2020, leading to peace between Israel and Bahrain and Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In December 2020, Morocco also signed a normalization agreement of ties with Israel.
Iran has always opposed the Abraham Accords. It especially does not want Israel’s ties with Bahrain and it is concerned about Israel increasing any kind of agreements in the Gulf. For instance, Iran sought to derail any expansion of the Accords to Oman and it does not want Israel-Saudi normalization.
The October 7 attack, led by Hamas, was likely part of Iran’s response. Tehran backed the attack, Hamas leaders are hosted in Qatar, which did not join the Accords despite being a close US non-NATO ally. Back in 2017, Saudi Arabia led the UAE, Bahrain, and other countries to cut ties with Qatar. Although there was reconciliation, it is possible that Doha was pleased to get back at the other Gulf states for the 2017 crisis.
Therefore, Hamas can be seen as a tool of a variety of enemies of normalization. For instance, Turkey withdrew its US and Israel ambassadors over Washington’s decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem in 2018; it also tried to derail the Accords.
It is in this context that one must understand Iran’s current outreach to the Gulf. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian “is eager to continuously interact and consult with the eight Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf,” Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported.
Sunday was the fourth anniversary of the Abraham Accords, something that Iran is using to try to create its own initiative in the Gulf and reduce Israel’s emerging ties with these countries. Tehran wants Israel isolated and in a long war of attrition with Hamas in Gaza so that its regional ties are harmed. This is why Iran is mobilizing so many proxies against Israel. The Houthis' attack on Sunday was at 6:32 a.m., symbolically almost the same time that the October 7 attack started.
Iran's symbolic timing
Iran believes in symbols and timing and has worked to reconcile with Saudi Arabia in a deal brokered by China, to use reconciliation against possible Israel ties. Iran also wanted the Houthis free to attack Israel, and it has used Saudi ties to guarantee that. Riyadh, meanwhile, is not pleased with the Houthis being pumped up on steroids by Iran.
BUT IT is also not ready yet to derail reconciliation. Iran has reached around behind Saudi to Cairo to increase ties. Along with Turkey, Iran hopes the Arab League will also work to condemn Israel and isolate Jerusalem.
Pezeshkian used his first trip abroad to go to Iraq, which is keen to help normalize Syria-Turkey ties and played a key role in normalizing Iran-Saudi ties. Pezeshkian sees Iraq as a gateway to the Gulf.
Iran already has close ties with Qatar and Oman. Kuwait, which suffered in the Iran-Iraq role in the 1980s, is keen to stay out of any crisis this time. Kuwait is also very hostile to Israel. As such, Iran already has inroads in Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, all while working with the Houthis in Yemen.
“The geographical proximity, bonds, and commonalities between the eight Persian Gulf countries provide a suitable ground for dialogue and consultation, and it is necessary for them to have continuous cooperation and coordination on issues of interest,” Ravanchi indicated, according to IRNA.
“By enumerating some common issues between the Persian Gulf littoral states such as economic cooperation, transit, environment, shipping, combating drug trafficking, coast guard, Takht Ravanchi said all these countries have the same views on these issues, and therefore, need constructive dialogue and consultations,” the report added.
Meanwhile, Pezeshkian’s trip to Iraq opened a new “chapter,” IRNA said in a separate report. Iran also wants to work on ties with Europe and to get around US sanctions. Ravanchi also talked up support for “resistance” against Israel in light of the Iraq trip. Iranian militias constantly operate in Iraq and use it to threaten Israel; militias operate in Syria as well.
A US military base in Kharab al-Jeer, located in the northern suburbs of eastern Syria, has reportedly come under rocket attacks. Lebanese TV network Al-Mayadeen on Sunday night, citing sources, said “several rockets were fired at the American military base in Syria’s Al-Hasakah Governorate,” IRNA reported on Monday. It is likely that Iran will increase threats to the US in Iraq and Syria as part of its wider regional game plan.