Professor Amatzia Baram, professor emeritus of Middle East history and director of the Center for Iraq Studies at the University of Haifa, emphasized that for a resolution in Lebanon to be reached, it is crucial for the Lebanese people to believe that Israel will conquer their country if a ceasefire deal is not achieved.
Baram made these remarks in a recent interview with Maariv, addressing reports that Lebanese residents fear Israel may not withdraw from the country.
“I want the Lebanese to think, believe, and understand that if there's no solution to the problem in southern Lebanon, we will conquer all of Lebanon. Or at least Beirut."
“I need the Lebanese, including the Shiites, to think this way. I believe we need to make it clear to the Lebanese that no one will return home. All of southern Lebanon is currently evacuating, up to the Awali River, which covers all of southern Lebanon. They need to believe they won't return home unless there is an agreement. The goal is to apply pressure for a resolution.
A new force to replace UNIFIL
"But the other side of the equation is that we have no interest in staying in Lebanon, including southern Lebanon. The condition for our withdrawal is the establishment of an international force to replace UNIFIL, the current UN force.
“This international force would include countries that have good relations with both Israel and Lebanon, such as France and Italy, among others. This force would have the same authority that, in James Bond mythology, he received from the queen, namely a 'license to kill.'
“If such a force with a license to open fire is established, it would be stationed throughout southern Lebanon, from south of the Awali, not just south of the Litani River. This would be backed by a UN resolution similar to 1701.
“Under these conditions, Israel is willing to return to the international border, the blue line. If not, the Lebanese must believe that Israel might consider staying throughout Lebanon. This will create pressure in Lebanon to reach an agreement.
"Two simply fantastic things happened that I never thought would occur. First: Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. We can see that they can still launch rockets—we saw that yesterday here in Haifa—but they’ve been dramatically weakened.
Just as importantly, their prestige has been seriously damaged. People are less afraid of them today; they’re still cautious, but definitely less fearful. That's the first thing.
“The second: Iran has been dramatically weakened, and we haven’t even hit them with the blow we’re expected to deliver.
"In Iran, you can see it everywhere—the regime is embarrassed, the regime is humiliated. We don’t know what happened to Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, who is also responsible for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
We don’t know whether he was killed along with Hashem Safieddine in a bunker in Beirut or not. I think there’s more than a 50% chance that he was. But in Iran, everyone is asking—even a regime mouthpiece said, 'We want to see him.' In any case, they’ve already been humiliated.
"Two things need to be done in Lebanon today. First, we need to establish a new force with a license to kill throughout southern Lebanon, together with the Lebanese army, because we accept the Lebanese army.
The second thing is to go to the Lebanese parliament and finally elect a president who is not acceptable to Hezbollah.
There is a candidate: I can tell you that right now, he’s the chief of staff of the Lebanese army. With international support and the support of the parliament, this president can disarm Hezbollah."