An interesting headline appeared on Iranian state media on Thursday: “Israel’s UN envoy sets condition for Lebanon ceasefire.”
This IRNA headline is fascinating because it presents a much more moderate and normal tone than usual in the Iranian state media, boasting about Iran’s successes in the war against the “Zionists.”
The article itself does refer to the “Zionist regime’s representative to the United Nations,” but it notes that Israel presented the position “that a ceasefire is possible with Lebanon if the Hezbollah resistance movement stops firing missiles and its movements north of the Litani River.” This is a signal that Iran is weighing this proposal: Iran doesn’t want to step back from its support for Hezbollah, but it might want to save face after the serious setbacks of its largest proxy group.
Iran is interested, as can be understood from this article, in statements made by Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon. “The people and government of Lebanon should seize the opportunity and take control of the events that are going on in their country today,” IRNA quoted him as saying, adding that “the Zionist envoy to the UN tried to interfere in the internal affairs of Lebanon.” This is important language because it means Iran’s state media wants Iran to listen to Israel’s views on the war.
The article further notes that Danon “also claimed that Zionists have no desire to stay in Lebanon, and those who can do the job are the Lebanese army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon or UNIFIL.” What matters here is not how they quote Danon but how they are willing to quote him at all; they are willing to listen.
Iran appears to be concerned, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu put out a statement about Lebanon just this week, that Israel will expand the war in Lebanon and Hezbollah could be defeated. “It’s more than two weeks since the Zionist military intensified its aerial strikes on Lebanon, pounding residential areas indiscriminately and killing and injuring thousands of civilians there. But they have failed to launch a ground invasion amid stiff Hezbollah resistance on Lebanese borders,” the Iranian media noted, adding, “Hezbollah shelling and rocket attacks have forced thousands of Zionist settlers to flee the northern occupied territories.” Is Iran perhaps thinking it could “take the win,” pretend it won this round, and pressure Hezbollah into a ceasefire that meets Israel’s conditions? Tehran may be worried that Jerusalem is now winning and that Israel won’t accept a ceasefire at this point, weakening the Iranian axis in the region.
Hamas and Fatah hold unity talks in Cairo
ON THE OTHER side of Israel’s southern border, Palestinian factions met in Cairo for talks on Wednesday. The Arab Weekly noted that the talks were “the first since the two groups met in China in July and agreed on steps to form a Palestinian unity government for Gaza and the West Bank.” Leaders from Hamas and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah movement discussed plans for cooperation after the war in Gaza in a new round of talks in Cairo on Wednesday, a Hamas official told Reuters.
The Hamas delegation is led by Khalil Al-Hayya, who is described as the Hamas second-in-command and head negotiator based in Qatar. Hamas media official Taher Al-Nono, on behalf of Hamas, said that “the meeting will discuss the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and the challenges facing the Palestinian cause.”
Fatah’s second-in-command, Mahmoud Al-Aloul, attended the meetings as well, the report added. This meeting in Cairo could mean that the Palestinian factions are also searching for a way out of the war in Gaza. If Iran now sees both Hezbollah and Hamas as needing a break from the fighting, it could become more flexible regarding a ceasefire. Any decision regarding a ceasefire would also need to be approved by Qatar.