An interesting headline appeared on Thursday, October 10, at Iran’s state media IRNA. “Israel’s UN envoy sets condition for Lebanon ceasefire.” This is a much more moderate and normal headline than one might expect in Iran’s state media, compared to the usual bragging about Iran’s successes in the war against the “Zionists.”
The article itself does refer to the “Zionist regime’s representative to the United Nations,” but it also notes that Israel has laid out “that a ceasefire is possible with Lebanon if the Hezbollah resistance movement stops firing missiles and its movements north of the Litani River.” This appears to hint at the fact Iran is weighing this proposal. Iran doesn’t want to step back from backing Hezbollah. But it might want to save face after Hezbollah’s serious setbacks.
Iran is interested in the statements by Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon. “The people and government of Lebanon should seize the opportunity and take control of the events that are going on in their country today. The Zionist envoy to the UN tried to interfere in the internal affairs of Lebanon.” This is important language because it means Iran’s state media wants Iran to listen to Israel’s views on the war. It also notes that Danon “also claimed that Zionists have no desire to stay in Lebanon and those who can do the job are the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon or UNIFIL.” What matters here is not how they quote Danon but how they are willing to quote him at all and, therefore, listen to Israel.
It appears that Iran is concerned after Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a statement this week about Lebanon. Iran is likely concerned Israel will expand the war in Lebanon, and Hezbollah could be defeated. “Its more than two weeks since the Zionist military intensified its aerial strikes on Lebanon, pounding residential areas indiscriminately and killing and injuring thousands of civilians there.
But they have failed to launch a ground invasion amid stiff Hezbollah resistance on Lebanese borders,” the Iranian media notes. “Hezbollah shelling and rocket attacks have forced thousands of Zionist settlers to flee the northern occupied territories,” IRNA also said. Is Iran perhaps thinking it could “take the win” and pretend it won this round and pressure Hezbollah into a ceasefire that meets Israel’s conditions? Tehran may be worried that Israel is now winning and that Israel won’t accept a ceasefire at this point, weakening the Iranian axis in the region.
Hamas and Fatah hold unity talks in Cairo
In another development, Palestinian factions met in Cairo for talks. The Arab Weekly notes that “The talks are the first since the two groups met in China in July and agreed on steps to form a Palestinian unity government for Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Leaders from the Islamist group Hamas and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah movement discussed plans for cooperation after the war in Gaza in a new round of talks in Cairo on Wednesday, a Hamas official told Reuters.”
The Hamas delegation is led by Khalil Al-Hayya, who is described as the Hamas second-in-command and head negotiator based in Qatar. Hamas media official Taher Al-Nono spoke in a statement on behalf of Hamas. The report said that Fatah’s second-in-command, Mahmoud Al-Aloul, attended the meetings as well. “The meeting will discuss the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and the challenges facing the Palestinian cause,” Nono said.
This meeting in Cairo is important because it could mean that the Palestinian factions are also searching for a way out of the war in Gaza. If Iran now sees Hezbollah and Hamas potentially both needing a break from the fighting, it could become more flexible on a ceasefire. Any decision for that would run through Qatar as well.