The military pressure placed on Hamas and its allies has brought the possibility of achieving a deal to return the hostages closer than ever before, according to a senior security official.
According to recent assessments by security officials, out of the 101 hostages, approximately 50 are believed to still be alive, including some foreign workers. The IDF is conducting sensitive operational activities and maneuvers to minimize harm to the hostages.
Security officials believe Hamas is under immense pressure as it can no longer coordinate efforts with Hezbollah, which is increasingly engaged in clashes with the IDF, or with Iran, which is currently preoccupied with its own issues, including its involvement in Iraq and support for the Houthis.
Hamas is reportedly interested in a deal
Hamas is reportedly interested in a deal and willing to compromise on its previous demand for a complete cessation of the war. The possible relocation of senior Hamas officials to Turkey has further facilitated a potential compromise. However, any agreement is expected to come at a significant cost to Israel, likely requiring the release of high-profile security prisoners with blood on their hands.
Based on discussions with Egypt and Qatar, as well as on signals from Turkey, there is a possibility of reaching a phased agreement over the next 42 days, prior to Donald Trump’s inauguration. A senior security official stated on Thursday that Israel is closer than ever to a hostage release deal, mainly due to the pressure being exerted in Gaza.
One key condition under discussion is the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza. Israel’s challenge in negotiations will be securing the release of as many hostages as possible in the first phase. Efforts are also underway, through a Russian-Palestinian channel, to secure the release of hostages with Russian citizenship.
“There is a chance for a deal. Hamas is under pressure and willing, and so are we,” said a senior security official. “There are discussions about specific terrorists’ names, and we won’t hesitate to make decisions.”
The official also noted that Southern Command chief Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman and division commanders informed Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz this week that Jabalya is on the verge of collapse. Its fall would intensify pressure, as it is a significant symbol in Palestinian society.
The security official clarified that the Philadelphi Corridor is not a central issue in the negotiations with Hamas, adding that “the conditions are more favorable than ever.”
He emphasized that the discussions do not involve ending the war but rather a temporary pause to facilitate the deal.
According to the official, Maj. Gen. Finkelman and division commanders assured that they would be prepared to resume fighting if the deal proceeds. He also stressed that the Israeli government will not agree to any form of Hamas governance—civilian or military—in Gaza and that the IDF will maintain operational freedom in Gaza, similar to its approach in the West Bank.