Defense Ministry Director-General Eyal Zamir should replace IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, and soon, senior defense officials told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
“Fourteen months have passed… the IDF chief needs to take the decision [to resign] relatively soon, and it needs to be a rapid process to replace him because of the continuing war and because of the broader situation,” they said.
They added that “the October 7 probes must be published soon… and there must be a proper transition period” to allow the incoming chief to get used to the role before Halevi leaves, even if the process will need to be shorter than the several months normally allocated for the transition.
They also cited Zamir’s current role as the top non-political official of the Defense Ministry, his former role as deputy IDF chief, his experience in a range of other top military roles, and that he managed to work as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military secretary without getting enveloped politically.
Their comments come after several days of renewed speculation that Halevi will step down in the coming months, which has reset the debate about who should and will replace him.
Debate returns to the table
Why has this debate returned to the front lines now after two to three prior rounds of speculation, which led to dead ends, given that Halevi decided to stay on?
On November 26, Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire.
Although there is no ceasefire with Gaza, Hamas has been largely militarily defeated since June, Hamas Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar was killed in mid-October, and there is also very little fighting there. And, the longer the Lebanon ceasefire holds, it is more likely that Iran and its proxies would think twice about trying to reignite a major fight.
This means that Halevi is closer to a point where he can declare a post-October 7, 2023 victory and go out with more honor and closure than at earlier points, when other military or political officials were trying to push him out.What seems to remain is that he wants to manage the rollout of the probes to put his stamp on them, and prevent Netanyahu from placing all of the blame on the military.
He also had wanted to make key appointments in the military among officers in his camp to set the IDF in the direction he believed it should go.
While he has had a good deal of success in this area, recently appointed Defense Minister Israel Katz has blocked two appointments, connecting their fates to Halevi publicizing the October 7 probes.
A letter that Halevi publicized last week said the IDF was going to move forward soon with the probes after having paused their progress in August.
In the spring, Halevi had promised to publicize all of the probes over July-August and did publicize the Be’eri battle probe in July. Halevi has delayed the other probes, though. This is due to a mix of pushback from field commanders that they were being criticized without the higher military echelon taking responsibility for their failures, as well as a recognition that Netanyahu would not budge even post-war on allowing a neutral state inquiry that might harshly criticize his role in October 7.
Some observers now speculate that the IDF probes will be published in February and that this will mark the time period when Halevi will resign, fulfilling a repeated promise he has made since early in the war to take personal responsibility for October 7.
There were then leaked reports that Strategic Affairs Command Maj.-Gen. Eliezer Toledano, who also served as Netanyahu’s military secretary and was viewed by some as closer to him personally than Zamir, might vie for the post.
Toledano himself killed these rumors, saying he would not seek to be chief and that his next plan would be to retire from the military.
At earlier stages, there was speculation that almost the whole top military and political echelon would collectively resign over the October 7 failure.
This might have broadened the race to replace the IDF chief to even more junior major-generals of the IDF high command; some even thought of brigadier-generals.
However, to date, only top officials in IDF intelligence have resigned. Not a single political official has resigned over October 7, nor military officials outside of intelligence or top Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) officials.
Sources said this means the race will likely be a traditional race between the only two men who are serving or have served as deputy IDF chief: Zamir, and current Deputy IDF Chief Maj.-Gen. Amir Baram, as well as with a slightly weaker chance, Northern Commander Maj.-Gen. Uri Gordin.
Gordin has a storied career, and is being given significant credit for the campaign against Hezbollah, and has served in other high command positions, but has not yet been a deputy IDF chief.
Both Zamir and Baram have served in roles equal to what Gordin has, plus they have the extra position of deputy IDF chief over him, and Zamir also has his current defense ministry position over both of them.
Other outside shots could be former major generals like Nitzan Alon, who has run the war’s hostage rescue and negotiation efforts for the IDF, or even having a former IDF chief temporarily return.
But many other top IDF officials in one way or another are implicated by October 7, so the list of possibles is not as long as one might think.
“It is not clear that there will be tolerance,” for such more creative approaches, said sources.
Further, the last race was limited to three top major general candidates, and the competition is usually limited to the very small number of top officers who have held both top field command and top headquarters positions.
Possibly the only matter that could derail Zamir is the fact that he was also a Southern Command chief, which could allow some to try to tar him with the October 7 failure.
However, Zamir was in that position from 2015 to 2018 – five years before the invasion – and with three other Southern commanders coming after him, separating him from the failure.
Sources further noted that when Zamir left the position of deputy IDF chief, he warned that the military was too small to handle its full defense roles and that the infantry was too small within the military.
Sources said, “We saw parts of this and the results on October 7” when only 600 soldiers were guarding the border with Gaza from an onslaught of 6,000 Hamas and other terrorist invaders.
Gordin may also be appointed the next deputy IDF chief to replace Baram, who might become the next IDF chief after Zamir.
Outgoing Land Forces Command Maj.-Gen. Tamir Yadai could also become the next deputy IDF chief, though for now, he is retiring from the military.