Three weeks before the new year, Syria’s Assad regime fell from power, one that has been in power for 50 years. Syria now has an unprecedented opportunity to turn a new page and begin 2025 with a fresh start.
However, not everything in Syria is a fresh start. While Damascus has been taken by Syrian opposition groups and the new leader of Syria – Ahmed Shara’a, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani – appears to be trying to burnish his image as an inclusive leader, there are parts of Syria that are in stasis. This means that parts of northern Syria are still occupied by Turkey and the Ankara-backed Syrian National Army, a group of militias, many comprised of Sunni Arabs or Turkmen. Many of these groups have become infamous for committing crimes against locals.
Turkey, meanwhile, does not look ready to withdraw from the parts of Syria it occupies. This means that these areas, like Afrin and Serekaniya, may continue to suffer under Ankara’s oppressive rule.
Ankara’s policies against the Kurdish minority
Afrin, for instance, was once a Kurdish area, but Kurds were forced to flee in 2018 as Syrians have been settled in instead. This is part of Ankara’s policies against the Kurdish minority; Turkey claims to be fighting “terrorism,” but there is no evidence there are terrorist groups in Syria threatening Turkey to the degree that Ankara claims.
Another part of Syria that enters 2025 with the same problems it faced in 2024 is the East. This is an area where the US has forces stationed that are backing the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighting ISIS. The SDF was formed in 2015 and is widely considered a success. Turkey, however, views it as linked to “terrorism,” particularly the YPG and PKK, which Ankara views as terrorist groups. This puts the SDF in the crosshairs and also means that eastern Syria is always at risk of a new conflict. The new government in Damascus likely wants to incorporate eastern Syria into its new administration.
This new government is moving slowly to try to figure out what to do with eastern Syria and the Turkish-occupied parts of Syria. It would like to bring SNA groups into a new unified armed force. It is unclear how it would also incorporate the SDF because Ankara has close ties with Damascus and would not want to see the SDF involved in the new Syria; there are many bridges that remain difficult for Syria to cross.
Where the new administration in Damascus has excelled is in trying to bring together existing opposition groups and sit down with minorities, such as Christians and Druze, and give the impression of wanting to build an inclusive Syrian government. However, authorities also say it will take years to write a new constitution and hold elections. Syria also lacks the arms and defense weapons to build a strong new cohesive military.
Plus, on another level, the administration appeared to appoint loyalists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the march on Damascus in early December. Among those appointed to new ranks are some foreign volunteers, which illustrates that while foreigners who fought as part of HTS may get benefits, there are swaths of Syria that still are not being represented. The new administration may be showing one face to the public in terms of inclusion but has other ideas when it comes to practical appointments.
What matters most is that Syria remains hopeful. On Tuesday night, New Year’s celebrations went off well in Syria, showcasing people’s hope. This was especially true in Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and Damascus, but is less clear in places like Manbij, Afrin, and eastern Syria. Are they hopeful for what 2025 may bring?
In eastern Syria, the US may want to withdraw its forces. US President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on January 20, tried to accomplish this during his first term. However, when he left office in 2020, there were still between 600 to 2,000 US troops in eastern Syria.
This time around, Trump may be flexible when it comes to Syria. However, he may judge that the new government in Damascus can do the job. Turkey and Qatar both have close ties with Washington as allies, and they also have contacts with the incoming US administration. They may suggest the US wrap up its role in Syria, which could lead to more chaos, or it could produce opportunities for unity – it depends greatly on how different countries act to make sure there is a smooth transition.
Many European countries are indeed engaging with the new administration in Damascus; Israel is more wary. Israeli officials have gone on record discussing the importance of protecting minorities – such as Kurds and Druze – in Syria. Israel currently operates along the Golan border in some Syrian villages, which could turn tense if Syrians grow tired of the IDF’s presence or if enemies exploit this situation. Many questions remain about what Israel will do in the next year in Syria.
Another question revolves around ISIS, which has some men in the Syrian desert between Palmyra and Albukamal. They may want to exploit the situation to carry out attacks. The US also has a garrison at Tanf in Syria, in an area of southern Syria that supports the Syrian Free Army, a small group of former Syrian rebels who may want to play a larger role as well. These are all areas of importance and should be closely monitored.