Israeli and American efforts are underway to extend the 60-day ceasefire with Hezbollah to avoid either a premature withdrawal or a return to a full-scale war in the North, The Jerusalem Post learned on Sunday.
The basis of the negotiations is the notion that there is currently a mix of positive and negative trends from the ceasefire and that the best-case scenario is to try to preserve and build on those positive trends while giving more time to confront the negative ones.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened Sunday afternoon a security meeting to discuss the ceasefire. An Israeli official told the Post, “Unless there is a huge surprise, the Lebanese Army won’t be able to deploy fully during the 60-day ceasefire, which means Israel will have to stay” for some longer period.
The official added that this message has been relayed to the Biden administration.
US special envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in Lebanon on Monday to try to preserve the ceasefire deal.
A senior adviser to Hochstein told the Post on Sunday evening that the special envoy is traveling to chair the first full meeting of the mechanism established to monitor, verify, and enforce the ceasefire commitments.
The adviser added that Hochstein is set to meet Lebanese government officials to discuss the ongoing implementation of the ceasefire. Going alongside Hochstein is Maj.-Gen. Jasper Jeffers from US Central Command, along with political and military leaders in Lebanon.
Although the 60 days will end on January 26, six days after US President-elect Donald Trump is set to assume the presidency, Biden administration officials are trying to solve the problems and prevent the ceasefire from collapsing over the next two weeks.
One of the options that multiple sources had referenced was an attempt to extend the truce possibly by another 30 days.
The IDF has withdrawn from El-Khiam and several other areas deeper in southern Lebanon, with expectations that it will soon withdraw from Nakoura and other areas that are mostly cleared of Hezbollah weapons.
The Lebanese Army has taken up positions in many of these areas, seemingly ready to prevent Hezbollah from returning to southern Lebanon – as required by the ceasefire deal.
However, in other areas, the Lebanese Army has failed to take up positions. The indications are that the US may support the IDF staying over in such areas at least for some amount of time.
Other foreign sources involved in the coordination declined to deny that the Lebanese Army is falling short of its obligations.
The IDF does not wish to leave after 60 days and immediately see Hezbollah returning to the border.
Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Sunday of severe consequences if Hezbollah failed to withdraw beyond the Litani River.
“If Hezbollah does not withdraw beyond the Litani River, there will be no agreement – and Israel will act on its own to ensure the safe return of the northern residents to their homes,” he said at the northern border.
However, if Israel is not careful, such talk could lead to the reopening of a full-scale war in the North, including hundreds of Hezbollah rockets per day at the home front.
This scenario would not seem to make sense to many top officials, given that right now, Hezbollah has “only” violated the deal in Lebanon, but has not fired into Israeli territory since the ceasefire was signed on November 27.
All of this could mean that a balance would need to be struck – such as the possible 30-day extension with a partial IDF withdrawal while the Israeli military would still hold onto certain areas to try to ensure compliance.
This extra 30 days could also help the IDF build better border defenses.
Troops operate in the Syrian Hermon area
On the Syrian front, the IDF revealed that troops completed a large operation in the Syrian Hermon on Sunday. Troops searched military structures and found and subsequently destroyed a weapons and intelligence information cache. Within it were explosives, anti-tank missiles, rocket launchers, and rockets.
The military announced on Sunday that the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) conducted a series of strikes targeting more than 100 terror sites across the Gaza Strip over the weekend.
The announcement came after Hamas launched multiple rockets toward Israel from Gaza over the weekend.
Based on IDF intelligence, the Israel Air Force conducted a series of precision strikes, killing or neutralizing dozens of Hamas terrorists and dismantling key launch sites from which the attacks originated.
Over several weeks, the IDF has held a pattern of putting some pressure on Hamas in Gaza, but holding off from any new major operation in Gaza City, operations like the one it carried out in Jabalya, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanun in October.
The military announced that a soldier, a member of the Tzabar Battalion in the Givati Brigade, was severely wounded early on Sunday in northern Gaza. He was wounded by a brick falling on his head.