On January 20, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, returning to the office to which he was first elected eight years earlier. How will his return to the Oval Office reshape the global strategic landscape? This question is of particular significance for the Middle East, which has undergone significant upheavals in the past fifteen months, including the Hamas attack on Israel and the ensuing Swords of Iron War, the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the Iranian and Houthi missile attacks on Israel.
To help gain a greater understanding of the potential effects of the second Trump Administration on the world, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University has issued a forty-six-page report available in PDF format, entitled “Reshaping the Global Landscape: How Will Trump’s Return Redefine Global Dynamics?” The report consists of sixteen articles by experts in the field that succinctly summarize the potential effects of the new administration on the Middle East, the energy sector, possible normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, relations between the United States and Turkey, and US foreign policy toward the states of the Former Soviet Union, North and South Korea, and the Indo-Pacific region.
>> Click here to view the report
Professor Jonathan Rynhold, who heads the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and who authored the article entitled “What Will Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Look Like?”, says the overall goal of the publication is to provide readers with a better understanding of the factors that will affect the Trump administration’s policy toward Israel. There is a certain tension, he explains, between the incoming President himself, who tends not to want to make commitments to allies, and some of his advisors, who feel that the United States needs strong allies to protect itself. These tensions will play out across a range of issues, says Rynhold, including the Iranian nuclear program, the Abraham Accords, Gaza, American aid to Israel, and a host of related matters.
“This is a pivotal moment in the Middle East and for Israel,” Rynhold explains. “Things that have been in place for a very long time have collapsed, and the situation is unusually fluid with very big things on the table, such as potential normalization with Saudi Arabia, dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat, the collapse of Assad and the future of Syria, the role that Turkey will play, the defeat of Hamas and, to a lesser degree, the defeat of Hezbollah. These are seismic changes. This is a moment where things can go in very different directions, depending on decisions taken in the region and particularly in Washington.”
>> Click here to view the report
Rynhold says the three most significant issues affecting Israel that President Trump will most likely address during his term are the Iranian nuclear program, the possible normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and economic issues that could have a major effect on Israel.
Regarding Iran, Rynhold says it is likely that the US will increase its sanctions on Iran. President Trump will have to decide if it is possible to come to an acceptable agreement with the Iranian regime on its nuclear program or if the US Administration will allow Israel to attack Iranian nuclear sites or possibly even participate in such an operation.
The issue of normalization with Saudi Arabia, notes Rynhold, is dependent on the Saudis’ need to see some type of Israeli support for a two-state solution at some point. Rynhold suggests that the third issue, economic considerations that could affect Israel, revolves around two different elements – tariffs and possible changes to the terms of American military aid to Israel. “Trump wants to have tariffs across the board, and that would damage the Israeli economy, which relies on exports, given that America is Israel’s largest export market.”
Trump has also said he wants to translate American military aid, which is currently in the form of grants, into loans. At present, the terms of US assistance to Israel are in effect until 2028. But, says Rynhold, if Trump does not renew these terms during his administration, they may change once he leaves office, which could have a significant effect on Israel.
“Reshaping the Global Landscape: How Will Trump’s Return Redefine Global Dynamics?” will provide readers with a greater understanding of the potential geopolitical and strategic implications of the Trump Presidency and how they may affect Israel, the rest of the Middle East, and the world.
>> Click here to view the report
This article was written in cooperation with Bar-Ilan University