Iran is being careful with its messaging in the wake of the Israeli airstrikes against it on Saturday. The regime is waiting to decide what it wants to do in response, if anything. This is because the regime’s leadership is likely split over how it would like to respond.
Iran’s relatively new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has said the Islamic Republic does not seek war. Nevertheless, he has been quoted by Islamic Republic News Agency, the regime’s official news agency, as saying Iran will prepare a proportionate response.
“He said that the Islamic Republic and the Iranian people have shown over the past 45 years that they would not back down against any aggressor,” IRNA reported.
Meanwhile, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref echoed Pezeshkian’s comments by claiming that Israel would receive an appropriate response. To illustrate the regime’s message discipline, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran does not seek war but will respond at the “appropriate time.”
While it is clear that the president of Iran and his closest advisers and officials prefer the same messaging, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian proxies likely have other ideas. This is because the Iranian president and foreign minister have been on a roll lately in terms of diplomatic outreach.
Focusing on the big picture: International diplomacy
Araghchi has visited most countries in the region, including some that are close to the West, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Pezeshkian also recently attended a BRICS conference in Russia, along with an Egyptian delegation. He prefers the bigger policy choices of trade and relationships more than focusing on war with Israel, leaving that up to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies.
Iran is working the phones to get condemnations of Israel. For instance, Israel’s attack was condemned by Gulf countries.
The Iranian foreign minister also spoke to his counterpart in Oman, Iranian state media reported Monday. The “attack” did not affect a trade delegation that had arrived from the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq, IRNA reported.
Israel's strikes: both deadly and weak?
There are hints that more is afoot. The IRGC mourned the “martyrdom” of four military personnel in the October 26 strikes.
“The illegitimate and illegal action of the child-killing Zionist regime, which failed to achieve its goals due to the readiness of the country’s air defense, shows the miscalculation as well as helplessness of this regime on the battlefield with resistance fighters, especially in Gaza and Lebanon,” IRGC Commander Hossein Salami said, adding that “certainly, its bitter consequences will be unimaginable for the occupiers.”
An Iranian civilian had died in the strikes, Iranian media reported.
For now, Iran is focused on rounding up diplomatic support. It also wants the UN to condemn Israel.
According to Iranian state media, the Iranian foreign minister even reached out to his counterpart in the UK to try to get condemnation of Israel. This is clearly reaching, but it shows the determination of Iran to present itself as the responsible country, pursuing diplomatic avenues.
Iran knows that its own actions caused the Israeli retaliation. It has backed Hamas and the October 7 massacre and arranged for proxies to attack Israel for over a year. Nevertheless, it still wants to claim to be a victim.