Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is taking a big risk by calling for new general elections before solving his dispute with Hamas. Abbas is well aware that he will never be able to hold presidential or parliamentary elections as long as the dispute with Hamas remains unsolved.
The power struggle between Abbas’s Fatah faction and Hamas escalated after the Islamist movement won the January 2006 parliamentary election. Several reconciliation agreements signed between the two rival parties over the past 14 years were never implemented.
Last year, Abbas decided to renew the reconciliation efforts. He dispatched Jibril Rajoub, Secretary-General of the Fatah Central Committee, to hold a series of meetings with Hamas officials in Turkey, Qatar and Egypt. The efforts came to a standstill after Abbas’s decision three months ago to restore security and civil relations with Israel.
In the coming days, Fatah and Hamas leaders are expected to return to Cairo to discuss preparations for the general elections. The discussions, however, will also focus on ways of ending the dispute between Fatah and Hamas, whose leaders have no intention of ceding control over the Gaza Strip.
In light of the wide gap between the two sides, it’s hard to see how they would be able to reach agreement on holding the elections in the near future. Hamas is backed by Iran, whose mullahs are unlikely to favor participation in elections held under the umbrella of the Oslo Accords.
If the Fatah-Hamas discussions in Cairo fail, it’s hard to see how Abbas would be able to proceed with his plan to hold the elections.
Fatah and Hamas still need to find a solution to a number of contentious issues, and they don’t seem to have much time. The parliamentary election is slated for May 22, while the presidential vote is expected to take place on July 31.
Some of the issues that need to be resolved: Will Hamas allow a free election in the Gaza Strip? Will the Palestinian Authority security forces allow Hamas candidates to operate freely in the West Bank?
Even if he manages to secure a deal with Hamas, Abbas will still face another major challenge from home. Will Fatah be able to run as a unified list, or will it again witness dissent and division? Many Fatah members have long been demanding an end to the rule of the old guard, saying the time has come for new and younger faces.
Fatah lost the 2006 parliamentary election to Hamas mainly due to its failure to get its act together and remove corrupt figures from its list. Given the rising tensions in Fatah, particularly the power struggle between the old guard and young guard, it’s difficult to see how its members would be able to run under one list.
There’s another challenge facing Abbas: his nemesis, Mohammed Dahlan, currently living in the United Arab Emirates. In 2011, Abbas expelled Dahlan from Fatah, apparently after noticing that the young Fatah official had political ambitions.
Dahlan, who has long been waiting for an opportunity to settle scores with Abbas, indicated over the weekend that his followers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip plan to participate in the upcoming election, even if they are excluded from the main Fatah list. This announcement is seen as a major threat to Abbas and his loyalists in Fatah.
It’s widely believed that the 85-year-old Abbas would have preferred not to hold new elections, especially not before solving the Fatah-Hamas rift or getting rid of the Dahlan “threat.”
Some of his aides said that Abbas announced the elections only to appease the European Union and show the incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden that the Palestinians are serious about implementing reforms and holding free elections.
The Palestinian public, meanwhile, does not appear to be all that enthusiastic about the idea of holding new elections, especially not at a time when the economy is very bad due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Many Palestinians who are skeptical about Abbas's intentions do not believe that elections would bring about real changes in their lives and conditions.