According to reports the Syrian regime forces have successfully taken ground against various extremist groups in Idlib in recent weeks, capturing Ma’arat al-Numan.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANTurkish President Tayyip Erdogan chats with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin before his departure at Zhukovsky Airport near Moscow, Russia, August 27, 2019.(photo credit: MURAT CETINMUHURDAR/PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Hundreds have been killed in Syria in fighting that spanned around 50 km. from western Aleppo to the town of Saraqib in Syria’s Idlib province. The fighting appears to pit Russian-backed Syrian regime forces against areas where Turkish-backed Syrian rebels and extremists are located.But Turkey and Russia are also working on an S-400 air-defense deal and energy deals, making the Idlib fighting a depressing sideshow to the real agenda of Moscow and Ankara.According to reports, Syrian regime forces have successfully taken ground against various extremist groups in Idlib in recent weeks, capturing Ma’arat al-Numan. This caps months of fighting in which the Syrian regime and Russian airpower have slowly strangled Idlib, where many hundreds of thousands of Syrians have fled over the years.Idlib is dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group that was once Syria’s version of al-Qaeda. In September 2018, Turkey and Russia signed a deal in Idlib to create a demilitarized zone between the two sides.Turkey has set up a dozen observation points in Syria. But its real goal in Syria is to defeat the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and it has recruited Syrians from Idlib to fight in Afrin and other areas where hundreds of thousands of Kurds have been driven from their homes.Turkey is trying to send Syrian rebels to fight in Libya, hoping to remove them before the regime takes back their areas. Millions of Syrians live in Turkey and hope the Turkish government will do more to stop the Russian-backed offensive.Russia has been backing the Syrian regime for years and hopes to help it retake most of Syria. But Turkey occupies part of northern Syria, meaning that the fighting in Idlib now brings the two countries closer to a mistake that could lead to wider tensions. Ankara and Moscow are jostling for control of the narrative.The UN, which has watched some 12 million people being displaced and made refugees in Syria’s fighting over the years, is calling once again for an end to the hostilities. Meanwhile, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says 205 people have been killed in the last week, UNICEF says 6,500 children are fleeing daily, and 300,000 people have fled since December.A Turkish military convoy has entered Syria’s Idlib, Russia’s TASS news agency and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) both reported. These dozens of vehicles could help hammer out a new ceasefire line with Russia and new Turkish observation points. Russia says Idlib is controlled by “illegal armed groups,” and it seems to distinguish between Turkish-backed militants and the extremists in Idlib.The reality is more complex. Turkey likely is watching Russia decimate HTS with hopes that the Syrians in Idlib will run to Turkish-controlled Kurdish areas of Afrin and be resettled where Kurds once lived, becoming dependent on Turkey for protection. The concept is to move Syrian Arab rebels to areas where Kurds were to create a buffer.
Turkey claims it is threatened by the Kurdish PKK, which it views as terrorists. It says the US has backed the PKK in eastern Syria, which it invaded last October. Then, Turkey and Russia signed a deal in eastern Syria. This means Turkey and Russia have effectively partitioned Syria.Syria’s government is not happy about this and wants the Turks to leave. Turkey wants the US to end support for the Kurds in Eastern Syria. Russia wants to sell Turkey S-400s while using Idlib as leverage.Idlib is also home to some ISIS members, as well as people who fled ISIS-held areas in Baghouz last year. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a US raid in Idlib last year. Additionally, ISIS took Yazidi captives to Idlib from 2017 to 2019. If Idlib falls to the regime, Turkey will be pressured to take in many people fleeing the province.The fighting and pressure brought by the regime has led Syrian opposition groups to launch their own minor offensive near Aleppo, a city they lost in 2016. They hope to take pressure off other areas in Idlib. The overall picture is not of a massive battle across all of Idlib’s long front line, but of small battles in certain areas. This is likely because of some deals that have been made between Turkey and Russia regarding certain sectors that the Syrian regime will operate in. Syrian regime forces and Russian air-force commanders have been careful to avoid harming Turkish forces in Idlib and neighboring areas.The question now is whether the fighting will grow and boil over to other parts of Idlib or rebel-held areas. Turkey hopes that UN, EU and US pressure might get Russia and the regime to pause. But Turkey is in an awkward position. It needs S-400s to keep its prestige as much as it does not want its observation points in Syria humiliated. It must continue to work with Russia and Iran regarding Syria, as it has done since 2017. And Turkey needs to deal with Russia in Libya, where the countries back opposing sides.Turkey also wants to be a champion of the Palestinian issue, hosting Hamas over the weekend. The hundreds of thousands of Syrians fleeing the regime’s offensive are therefore not a priority. But they cannot be allowed to flood into Turkey, and their displacement must be managed. Syria’s regime knows this and operates slowly and consistently, pressuring and then stopping, pressuring and stopping, to give Turkey time to release the pressure each time.Turkish pro-government media reflects Ankara’s narrative. It generally ignores Idlib fighting, only noting that the Turkish-backed Syrian rebels are trying to retake ground near Aleppo.Turkey’s Daily Sabah reminds readers this is an area that Turkey took in 2016 in northern Syria. Anadolu, another pro-government news agency, does not even mention Idlib. Turkey hopes the whole thing will just go away with a new deal in Moscow.
