Turkey’s ambitions in Libya and Eastern Med. again in spotlight - analysis
Everyone is a Turkey watcher these days it seems, as Ankara seeks to continue to stir up tensions using a research vessel and claims to energy rights across the Mediterranean.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANTurkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a joint news conference with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani (not seen) after their meeting in Ankara, Turkey, December 20, 2018(photo credit: UMIT BEKTAS / REUTERS)
A war of words about Turkey’s role in the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya is growing in the Middle East. This rhetorical war is designed to raise alarms in Europe and the US about how Ankara has threatened Greece as well as Egypt and others.The visit by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Cyprus was greeted with smiles in Greece as well as the Gulf, where the media has covered his statements about Turkey’s “concerning” actions. .Everyone is a Turkey watcher these days it seems, as Ankara seeks to continue to stir up tensions using a research vessel and claims energy rights across the Mediterranean. Turkey has muscled its way into recent meetings with Europe, even after it slammed European countries, and has insulted France and done everything it could to burn bridges. Turkey’s attempts to play both sides, acting as a kind of arsonist who then brings the fire extinguisher, has gained it attention and access to more and more meetings where its role is being debated about, including various means and ideas about how to either confront or appease Ankara.The latest news is that Turkey is still stirring the pot in Libya, where it seeks to undermine Egyptian-backed Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi, even as its own Turkish-backed Tripoli government has internal problems. Turkey would also like Russia’s support against NATO and the US. Washington has expressed concern about Ankara sending mercenaries from Syria to Libya, but the US is also worried about Russian aircraft there.Russia supports Haftar. Both Russia and Pompeo have now expressed interest in Cyprus. The US is ending an arms embargo. France is working on defense deals with Cyprus. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was also there. It appears Cyprus may be the most important country in the Eastern Mediterranean and a “prize” for everyone involved. That is why Turkey has military drills with Northern Cyprus, which it occupies.Hamas is also chipping away at the Eastern Mediterranean. It is less important, but it is showing off its missile range by new test firings. This is an attempt to show that after meetings with Ankara and a trip to Lebanon, Hamas has a larger role to play as well. Iranian media emphasizes this fact, showing that Iran wants to use Hamas to grow its influence as well.Might Iran, Qatar, Turkey, Hamas and Hezbollah be seeking to work more closely together on some of these issues, especially because of shared hostility to Israel?What is clear is that Turkey’s daily role in the Mediterranean appears to be cultivating crises. At the same time, media in the Gulf is laser-focused on Ankara’s role in Libya and what might come next. The US is also deeply interested in Cyprus and Libya.That means these conflicts are connected, and it is important to see what Turkey’s next move is in regards to the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya.
