Competing air-defense and drone systems are now the key to Libya’s escalating civil war. While Turkey has deployed its Bayraktar drones to Libya in recent months, the Libyan National Army (LNA) or its supporters from eastern Libya have launched airstrikes on air-defense systems at the Watiya air base, according to a new report. That base allegedly has MIIM-23 Hawk air-defense systems.
The latest incident at Watiya comes after the May defeat of the LNA at the same base by the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Turkish drones had destroyed Russian-made Pantsir air-defense systems at the base. The reports, by Al-Ain and other media, now indicate that this desert tit-for-tat battle may come down to who has the best drones, air defense and air force.
The LNA is backed by Egypt, the UAE and Russia, with some possible support from Greece, France and the Syrian regime. The GNA is backed by Turkey, Qatar and Iran, with some tacit support from Italy, Germany and the US. This is now the largest proxy war in the Middle East outside of Syria.
The two conflicts are linked in that Syrian rebel mercenaries were sent by Turkey, in violation of an arms embargo, to be used as cannon fodder in Libya. Turkey now wants to build bases and resurrect its former Ottoman-era claims to Libya as part of a great nationalist and populist agenda in Ankara, underpinned by demands for energy rights off the coast.
Claims that Turkish air-defense forces were destroyed at Watiya have not been confirmed, and it is unclear if there really were airstrikes against the systems. However, satellite photos that were published allegedly showed the deployment.
The real story, regardless of the truth about the airstrikes at Watiya, is that this is a hi-tech game of air defense and drones with large ramifications for North Africa. Whoever dominates Libya will have influence over the chaos and instability in the Sahel, where jihadist networks operate, as well as refugee movements to Europe, gas deposits off the coast and oil, as well as influence over politics in Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia.
The battles in Libya are already affecting Tunisia and Algeria. France has been doing outreach to Algeria; Russia, Turkey and others are doing outreach to Tunisia. Egypt says it will confront further Turkish aggression in Libya if the LNA is weakened.
The US says it wants to confront Russia in Libya. Everyone seems to want a piece of the action. None of the countries involved seem to have any interest in the Libyan people or stabilizing the country after a decade of civil war.
It looks more like a test bed for Turkish weaponry and Chinese drones, as well as for Russian and Turkish air-defense systems.