Why Iran is more dangerous than North Korea - analysis
Obviously for Israel, Iran is the only direct danger as the North has no real interest in the Jewish state.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBIranians burn U.S and Israeli flags as they gather to mourn General Qassem Soleimani, head of the elite Quds Force, who was killed in an air strike at Baghdad airport, in Tehran, Iran January 4, 2020(photo credit: NAZANIN TABATABAEE/WANA VIA REUTERS)
There are many reasons why Iran is more dangerous than North Korea.This is true despite several factors.Pyongyang already possesses nuclear weapons and is getting closer to being able to fire intercontinental ballistic missiles.Earlier this week, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un decided to blow up the joint liaison office used for talks it had been having with South Korea, apparently returning the world to the 2017 era of threats of a nuclear holocaust.Obviously for Israel, Iran is the only direct danger as the North has no real interest in the Jewish state.However, North Korea has helped Iran with aspects of its nuclear missile program – and officials over the years have worried it might even simply sell the ayatollahs one of its nuclear weapons.Furthermore, Pyongyang helped Syria establish a nuclear program until Israel destroyed it in 2007, and is generally far ahead of the Islamic Republic in the nuclear arena.North Korea is moving from a small number of basic nuclear weapons to a full arsenal of more advanced nuclear weapons.In contrast, Tehran still may be stuck at being six months away from enriching enough uranium for a nuclear bomb. Also, to date it has failed to master placing a nuclear warhead on even shorter-range ballistic missiles.So why is Iran so much more dangerous?
Blowing up the liaison office – as well as new allegations from former national security adviser John Bolton that no one in the Trump administration (including US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo) other than the president himself ever believed in negotiations with Kim – say it all.Not that Trump administration officials have ever been warm to Iran.But much of the world believes or entertains Iran’s lies in a way that no one does with North Korea.Going further, the EU allows itself to accept the Islamic Republic’s fancy, deft and complex presentation of its various controversial stances to impact its policy in concrete ways.The EU ignores much of Iran’s adventurism in the Middle East, its ballistic missile tests and advanced uranium centrifuges – and shows that it barely cares when the ayatollahs ignore IAEA inspection requests.China and Russia, for all practical purposes, accept Iranian protestations of innocence as irrefutable facts regarding its attacks on and threats to other countries, whether conventional ones or through pushing its nuclear program forward.Tehran is often treated as a responsible grownup with whom there are just some minor disagreements that need to be ironed out some day.A lot of this stems from the tremendous sophistication and strategic patience of Iran in the global arena.Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and others know how to play the global media and many international officials like a maestro conducting an orchestra.In contrast, Kim and his associates seem to have only one strategy: threaten the world and blow things up to get attention.They do occasionally get some attention. Yet, Kim has no credibility anywhere in the world, other than sometimes in China. Plus, even Beijing treats North Korea as more of a tantruming stepchild when compared to the respect it gives to the ayatollahs’ spokespeople.With North Korea, the danger is clear and the world is by and large united.Yes, Kim could endanger his country’s survival by using its nuclear weapons. But other than that, he has few cards to play and few allies to cooperate with. And as Bolton’s reveal about Pompeo proves, no one believes him.In contrast, the Islamic Republic has a wide range of effective alliances with world powers and with militia proxies, and much of the world takes its diplomatic moves seriously.It knows how to leverage even the possibility of nuclear weapons for far more than North Korea’s already existing nuclear bombs and potential arsenal.This makes it far more deadly not only to Israel, but also to the US and the rest of the West.
