It is the end of December, and anyone who says they knew the war would still be occurring nearly three months later is a bald-faced liar.
Whatever preconceptions we may have had immediately after the October 7 massacre have turned into misconceptions and trying to predict when some type of normalcy will return to the tourism industry borders on insanity. The fact that Ethiopian Airlines is flying daily to Addis Ababa doesn’t affect the majority of people. The fact that the Lufthansa group, which consists of Austrian Air, Brussels Air, Lufthansa, and Swiss, is returning to Ben-Gurion Airport on January 8 should be seen as a very positive sign.
That those airlines are only flying at 30% capacity – and most of them in the afternoon from Tel Aviv, so that the crew doesn’t have to spend too much time on the ground – is wonderful if you need to fly to Vienna, Belgium, Germany, or Switzerland. But if you want to fly with them to destinations beyond Europe, you will be disappointed. For example, except for Austrian Air via Vienna, they have no same-day connections to North America. Sorry, but they will not pay for an overnight in Europe; that expense is on you.
El Al has kept the high ground since the war began, keeping their planes in the sky. They have become almost the sole airline flying to North America. My Canadian clients despise Air Canada’s absence from the market with a visceral hatred; for El AL, they have to change planes at JFK or Newark.
The war has also resulted in some strange reactions from some airlines. Take United Airlines, whose Israeli office is beseeching its main office in Chicago to return to Tel Aviv. Israeli management has pointed out that the Emirates’ Fly Dubai and Etihad from Abu Dhabi are flying here twice daily. In fact, Fly Dubai just announced a third daily flight from Tel Aviv to Dubai.
They are well aware that their partner in the Star Alliance, the Lufthansa Group, is returning. But mum’s the word out of Chicago as to when United will resume operations; worse, their bean counters have decided that until United returns, the premium and business classes are taken from the system.
Trying to purchase a United ticket in the spring or summer is absurdly expensive. One can look at the seat map and see that 90% of them are not occupied but United has chosen to price itself out of the market.
Want to fly United Airlines in May to Newark? The planes are nearly devoid of booked passengers. El Al wants $1225 for its economy class, while United offers a fare of $2100. For Premium and Business class, the par is even higher.
When people consider flying in the spring, United’s price scares them all off. It has an excellent product and in business class; clients rave about the pajamas. But almost nobody will pay $1000 more for a pair of pajamas.
I cannot speak on behalf of United’s management in Tel Aviv but nobody in this country can explain w if someone does wish to purchase a United ticket in the spring, the airline has effectively priced themselves out of the playing field.
Allow me to attempt my best Nostradamus impersonation and prognosticate for 2024.
Israeli residents make up bulk of travel in and out of country
Israeli residents are filling up almost 90% of every plane flying in and out of Israel, both in the last three months and for the first quarter of 2024. There is a spattering of solidarity delegations, and some Birthright groups are planning on touching down at Ben Gurion Airport. Some intrepid North American tourists are coming to Israel, both to do some volunteering and to support their families who live here. All together, they are a drop in the bucket, and this will not change quickly.
We don’t have Christians clamoring for Easter programs in the Holy Land. A few Israeli tour operators are marketing Passover in Israel to North Americans; very few are biting. Nobody wants to plan an organized tour to Israel in the middle of the war. Nobody knows when the war will end.
Do not expect the situation to change. Passover and Easter will be a bust, and from previous experience, the odds are that those Israeli hotels not hosting survivors and displaced persons due to the war will not lower their prices to entice the local market. It’s far easier for them to moan about their losses and beseech the government to assist them in their decreasing revenues and increasing costs.
The most common query that my staff and I receive on a daily basis is: When will all the foreign carriers return? The simplest answer is: when the war ends. El Al has been flying consistently to almost all its prewar destinations but has raised its fares by over 26%.
Management at El Al will state unequivocally that, with no competition, the airline will raise its prices as much as the market can bear. It also says to keep in mind that while the Israelis who are flying are paying very high fares, there is almost no incoming tourism. Potato, potato... sounds a bit too close to price gouging.
Here’s one prediction I can bet the house on: When the war is over and all the airlines return, El Al will drop its fares immediately. So, if you purchase an expensive ticket for the spring or summer, make certain to know what the cancellation fee is. Be ready to pounce on a much lower fare, either from El Al or from one of its competitors, once competition is restored. Paying the cancellation fee and buying the lower fare may save you hundreds of dollars.
El Al has been at the top of the game for the last three months. It has stepped up when so many have stepped down. It has been very helpful in solving clients’ needs, and the icing on the cake is its code share agreement with Delta Air Lines.
This partnership is not just about code-shared flights. Agreeing to reciprocate benefits for their frequent fliers means that the top-level frequent fliers on both airlines will not only earn miles when flying on the other airline; they will also have access to preferred seats, priority check-ins, and extra luggage. When the press released this new deal, hundreds of El Al passengers discovered that buying the El Al flights on a Delta code share was drastically less expensive.
It took El Al a few days to plug the hole. Delta may not be returning to Tel Aviv from JFK so quickly and it has already scrapped its nonstop flights to Boston and Atlanta for all of 2024, but this agreement has put them in the public eye. The longer United and American airlines do not fly to Israel, the more the natural migration to El Al and Delta will increase. El Al’s market share in 2024 should surpass 2023 when comparing apples to apples.
Summer of 2023 saw thousands of Israelis traipsing to Haifa port to board world-class cruise liners. Royal Caribbean Lines was the big winner; it offers a kosher alternative on a five-star boat.
It was lapped up across the nation. Sadly, they have already announced they are removing their Israel stops in 2024. Competitor Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings also informed agents that it was removing Israel from its 2024 itineraries. If you want to take a fancy cruise this summer or fall, you will first need to get on a plane and fly to their European port.
MSC Cruises recently touted that bookings from Israel for 2024 have risen by 70%. The CEO of MSC Cruises in Israel spoke about a revival in bookings and an increase in visits to the website. Color me skeptical; no doubt, there may be an increase in visits to the website, but give me hard figures when banding statistics such as 70%.
If, in late 2022, 100 Israelis had booked MSC for 2023, then, if 170 booked MSC for 2024, it would not be a very clear sign of a robust recovery.
The tourism industry – incoming, internal, and outgoing – has been devastated. After nearly three months of war, the majority of travelers are businesspeople who are flying nearly at prewar levels. Coupled with the large Anglo community in Israel that travels abroad to visit family or to attend a simcha or a burial, very few people are planning or even pondering a leisure trip here. This will not change until the war has ended.
For the late spring and summer, there has been a dramatic uptick in future airline bookings. Most everyone believes that although we have a war economy, they also fervently believe that, with increased taxes in 2024, the war cannot last that long. Cruises to Alaska and organized tours in other far-off places are finding buyers. Israelis will travel after the war has ended.
Living in a landlocked nation where, among the surrounding countries, only Jordan and Egypt would accept an Israeli passport provides us with the impetus to travel abroad. But it won’t be the pop after the COVID pandemic. It will take time to get over the trauma. Some will feel they ‘deserve’ a vacation after all they have gone through. Others will realize how badly they need a break from the horrors of the war. We are a small nation, and almost everyone knows someone whose life was destroyed and shattered by the war.
We may be one people, but do not confuse our suffering and strain with the Diaspora. Antisemitism may have come to the surface in places where we thought it would never again exist, but taking a trip or a pilgrimage to Israel is not the antidote they are seeking. No pilgrims are planning on coming here this spring; no massive number of tourists will be landing at Ben-Gurion Airport in the short term. Do not expect a spring awakening. April showers may bring May flowers, but while hope springs eternal, tourists need a modicum of calm before deciding to visit Israel.
We will survive this massacre; we will thrive in the aftermath. But for now, all of our energy must be focused on winning the war, freeing the hostages, and strengthening the survivors. Everything else is secondary.
Mark Feldman is the CEO of Ziontours Jerusalem and a director at Diesenhaus. For questions and comments, email him at mark.feldman@ziontours.co.il.