Everyone wants peace, but only on their terms. And when there are multiple sides and each one is split into opposing factions, it is even more elusive.
President Joe Biden unveiled a plan, which he said originated with Israel, to end the Gaza war. “This was an Israeli proposal,” his spokesman said – but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the president was “not accurate” and the Israeli leader’s demands for total victory, the complete destruction of Hamas, “have not changed.”
He rejected Biden’s declaration that Israel’s war goals have been achieved and Hamas is incapable of another October 7. Depending on which anonymous “senior Israeli official” (a frequent euphemism for Bibi himself) is speaking to reporters, the proposal was coordinated in advance, had Bibi’s tacit approval, was actually Bibi’s idea, or he didn’t know anything about it.
Israel, like its American ally and its Hamas enemy, is plagued with competing interests and conflicting policy statements.
Israel itself remains torn
Netanyahu is torn between his personal and political interests, and the national interest. Tens of thousands of Israelis took to the streets this weekend demanding that the PM resign, call new elections, and agree to an immediate ceasefire and return of the hostages while they’re still alive (four more were declared dead this week, including three who had been seen alive in a Hamas video begging to be released; Hamas is holding their bodies).
Tens of thousands of Israelis have been forced to flee their homes because of this war, those in the South near Gaza, and the North within range of Hezbollah missiles and rockets from Lebanon. They want to return to their homes, their jobs, and what passes for normalcy.
Worse is the plight of millions of Palestinians in Gaza. The Biden proposal would bring a dramatic and immediate increase in humanitarian aid and make possible the Palestinians’ return home, and the rebuilding of their destroyed communities. But Hamas is in no hurry; it believes time is on its side. The longer the war, death, and destruction continue, the greater pressure will be put on Israel to make concessions to the terror group.
Those thousands of dead innocents are political assets for October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar while he and his family are safe in their tunnels. The conflict and casualties keep Palestinians front and center on the world stage, damages Israel internally and globally, and blocks Israel’s normalization with Saudi Arabia (believed to be the initial goal of October 7) and other Arab states.
HAMAS HAS its divisions as well. According to reports from Qatar, where the political leadership lives in luxury hotels far from the dirty tunnels, Ismail Haniyeh and his political wing want a deal before their movement is destroyed.
A Hamas spokesman said it was ready to engage “positively and in a constructive manner” on any deal that includes a “permanent ceasefire” and total Israeli withdrawal. In other words, it’s ready to bargain for its survival.
Israel isn’t the only one hoping to see Hamas destroyed. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah movement are targets of an Iranian-backed Islamist plan to take over the West Bank under Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad control.
The PA is protected by its security cooperation with Israeli forces. Jordan’s King Abdullah II can’t be happy about a Hamas victory, either, knowing that if it controls the West Bank it will set its sights on the East Bank of the river.
Hamas is an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt has outlawed as a terrorist group and which operates in the Sinai, where it has reportedly been smuggling arms and other contraband into Gaza for years.
Biden sees his proposal as paving the way to broader Middle East peace, with the next step being the normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations, leading to what he called “a regional security network to counter the threat posed by Iran.” So far, his plan is long on hope and short on details, but pressure is growing on all sides.
The American president is also concerned about his own political survival. His “ironclad” support for Israel has alienated many progressives in his party as well as Arab/Muslim Americans and young voters. Five months before the presidential election, and with rapidly changing developments in the Middle East, it is difficult to predict the war’s impact on American politics. But there are some disturbing signs for Biden, particularly among pro-Palestinian voters in key states like Michigan.
DONALD TRUMP has largely avoided talking about the war except to call it a PR disaster for Israel (he’s right), declaring he backs the “war on terror,” telling Israel to “get it over with” and airing some personal grievances against Bibi.
He raised the tenor late last week, hoping to harvest Arab/Muslim-American voters who are unhappy with Biden. He can expect trouble squaring that with his history of hostility toward those and other immigrant groups, and his strident anti-Palestinian rhetoric and calls for mass deportations. He may not win their votes but still benefits if they simply stay home on November 5.
Last month the disgraced former president told a group of wealthy donors – which included “98% of my Jewish friends” – that many of the pro-Palestinian campus protesters are “foreign students” and he would “throw them out of the country,” The Washington Post reported.
Matt Brooks, head of the Republican Jewish Coalition, said Trump prefers “giving the Israelis a blank check to go in and do what they need to do to destroy Hamas and eliminate the threat in Gaza from Hamas.”
In contrast, Biden spoke of “a durable end to this war,” an end to Israel’s international isolation, and the integration of the Jewish state into the region, starting with Saudi normalization.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and former American Israel Public Affairs Committee legislative director.