Just weeks ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was pleading for a White House visit—his first meeting with President Joe Biden since his election nearly two years ago. He postponed his Congressional appearance until certain of a White House return.
Now, the meeting is set, but with a crucial difference. Instead of facing a president prepared for the political challenge ahead, Netanyahu is tallying the damages of recent weeks. Privately, he knows his chances for a second term are dwindling. The Republican machine, fueled by the assassination attempt, iconic images, and powerful "fight, fight" rhetoric, will likely overwhelm the incumbent president.
Netanyahu and Biden now find themselves in a mutual embrace, their fates intertwined. Their long-standing personal connection has become their last hope.
Biden is fighting fiercely, even within his own party, against mounting doubts. His halting gait, stutters, and public missteps—once overlooked—now appear as glaring physical and mental warning signs. TV interviewers' persistent questions about his capabilities reflect deep concern not just for him, but for the Democratic Party, its political standing, and indeed, for the world, including Israel.
We'll address Trump shortly. For now, Biden hopes his meeting with Netanyahu will reclaim Jewish voters and donors, following policy reservations, rising antisemitism in America, and anti-Israel leanings within his liberal-left party. Jewish support remains significant. Trump skillfully exploited the rift between Biden and Israel, particularly regarding weapons supply delays. He swiftly attacked Biden on this, forgetting his own early criticism of Israel in the conflict. Biden faces severe challenges and knows it. His chances of a comeback are diminishing.
Netanyahu will arrive in Washington long after his re-election. Despite public support for Israel, the administration shunned his right-wing ministers, opposed his judicial reforms, and effectively rejected his grand Middle East plan. This Netanyahu is weaker than ever in Washington. The Gaza war continues beyond reasonable limits; in the north, Israel clashes with Hezbollah without silencing the fire. From the east, our enemies grow bolder—Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran have become active fronts. It's an unimaginable scenario.
Israel's economic downturn
We haven't even touched on Israel's economic blow, growing global isolation, or domestic instability. A floundering government barely navigates between coalition partners to avoid premature collapse.
Two seasoned statesmen, having weathered career highs and lows, personal tragedies, defeats, and victories, now find themselves allied against formidable yet vulnerable opponents. Their health issues, both public and private, play a central role. Neither young, both have battled illnesses while working tirelessly under immense pressure. Rumors about their true medical conditions circulate widely in both countries. While democracies typically discuss leaders' health openly, there's a tendency to conceal or ignore medical difficulties.
The picture will be clear in three to four months. If Biden wins—seemingly impossible now—he'll rally to rehabilitate himself and his party. If he fails, he'll drag Democrats into political disaster. America will transform, with Republicans controlling all three branches of government.
A new Trump would be impatient with Netanyahu, viewing him as a "failure" for not swiftly winning this war. Trump has no patience for perceived weakness. Just as he once insulted war hero Senator John McCain as a coward for being captured, his attitude towards Israel may be similarly harsh.
"Want weapons? Buy them." "Quarreling with neighbors? Your problem, not mine." "Annexing territories and prolonging Palestinian conflict? Your issue entirely."
He'd likely treat NATO allies, Taiwan, and especially Ukraine similarly, pushing for deals like those he claims to have made.
This scenario isn't far-fetched. It's based on Trump's first-term policies, subsequent statements, and his apparent vengefulness towards the justice and public systems. His choice of the obscure Senator J.D. Vance as a potential successor shows his disregard for continuity in crisis.
Reality is deceptive, and this may sound absurd, but Netanyahu would do well to strengthen Biden in his upcoming visit. As things stand, he may soon miss him.
Dr. Nachman Shai is the Dean of Hebrew Union College, Institute of Jewish Studies in Jerusalem, former Diaspora Affairs Minister and IDF Spokesperson.