The US will have to demonstrate its firm stand on Israel’s side in the upcoming military campaign, as a long list of countries are watching it with a very, very critical eye.
The sense of betrayal and disappointment associated with the United States amidst its allies, following its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan (completed in September 2021) is still freshly imprinted in the minds of some of the region’s main role players, who had already begun to flirt with competing powers for alternative economic and security backing.
The manner in which the United States will demonstrate its strength vis-à-vis Iran, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shi’ite militias in Iraq, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and of course Russia and China who are actively maneuvering behind the scenes – will be a watershed moment in terms of determining its positioning and status in the existing world order.
It may sound dramatic, but following October 7, it seems that the dam of radicalism had been broken – the same radical campaign that had been meticulously planned since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Already then, 45 years ago, the Mullah regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran began to plan the public relations campaign that we are witnessing today around the world – a campaign that is not, as we tend to think, against the State of Israel and/or the Jews, but against the West and its values and in favor of the establishment of an extreme worldwide Islamic caliphate.
This campaign comprises small, slow and systematic steps, in the shape of infiltrating all systems in the West, including professional syndicates, student bodies, think tanks, neighborhood councils, LGBT circles, Green Peace circles, and more.
Within this large, macro framework, the events of October 7 were a very marginal part of the bigger picture, which as previously mentioned is the establishment of a large-scale radical Islamic Caliphate, while weakening the current superpower in the international arena, the USA, and simultaneously eliminating the influence of regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, India, and more.
Iran is doing all this while temporarily cooperating with any potential partner who serves its goal – at least for the time being – including Russia, China, and North Korea, as well as large parts of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and more. Recently, it appears that in light of its poor economic condition, Egypt has also been caught in Iran’s dangerous spider web.
Egypt sits on the wrong side of history
This was reflected in a high-level Iranian visit to Cairo, approximately ten months ago, and in the fact that the official Egyptian regime gave the “green light” to the existence of dozens of significant terrorist tunnels running from Egyptian Rafah into Gaza. The latter allowed the smuggling of weapons and offensive equipment from Iran to Hamas, in preparation for the October 7 attack.
Furthermore, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s recent statement that he will not cooperate with a US-led coalition against Iran, which would counter Tehran’s attack on Israel, reinforces the assumption that some kind of a deal may have been forged between Cairo and Tehran, given Egypt’s precarious economic situation. Although Egypt accepts the second largest foreign aid package from the United States, it seems that it no longer trusts its benefactor’s strength in the region and is now prone to choosing the wrong side.
Alongside this choice, its significant armament efforts in recent years in the Sinai Peninsula should be a cause of concern for the West – yet another reason why the US must demonstrate clarity of policy against the Iranian axis in the upcoming campaign, so that Egypt must once again be convinced that there is no other side but the American one.
The writer is a fellow of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, a former member of Knesset and a past deputy ambassador to Egypt.