Now that both the Republican and the Democratic conventions are behind us, many are asking: Who is better for Israel? But that’s not the right question.
We must start thinking about how Israel remains a vital ally for all Americans.
Before the war, one could argue that US President Joe Biden was among the best presidents ever for American Jews. He entered the White House with tremendous support from American Jews after a significant rise in antisemitism under Trump. Biden, who identifies as a Zionist, had, before the Gaza war erupted, embraced a comprehensive plan to combat antisemitism. When it broke out, Biden took a firm stand alongside Israel with his famous “Don’t!” and increased military assistance to Israel.
However, the last 10 months have completely changed the landscape. Biden has been cognitively declining and was forced to withdraw from the presidential race. The prolonged war, coupled with numerous disputes with Netanyahu’s right-wing government and growing domestic criticism of Israel’s war policies, have left Biden between a rock and a hard place.
The appointment of Harris as the nominee raises significant concern among pro-Israel American Jews, leading many to question her policies. We’ve been observing a slight shift in the polls among Jews toward Trump. In Israel, the strong support for Biden that was evident at the start of the war has waned, and Trump has once again become the preferred candidate for most Israelis.
Therefore, the question arises: Who is better for Israel, Trump or Harris?
There’s no doubt that the choice of Harris poses reasons for concern. Support for Palestinians within the Democratic Party is growing, and she needs the progressive base to win in November. At the DNC, we saw a glimpse of how she intends to approach Israel. The party chose to give a respectable platform to the parents of the hostage Hirsch Goldberg-Polin, while at the same time denying stage time for pro-Palestinian representatives from the “uncommitted” campaign. The pro-Palestinian activists promised to bring 100-150 thousand protesters to Chicago but managed to bring only a few thousand, weakening their influence.
In her nomination speech, Harris strongly supported Israel’s right to defend itself and condemned the October 7 attack. However, unlike Biden, whose support for Israel comes from a deep, emotional place, Harris was clearly trying to please all factions in a party that has been deeply divided around the war in Gaza. She ended her remarks on the war by calling for an end to the suffering of Palestinians so that they, too, can “realize their right to dignity, security, freedom, and self-determination,” all to the sound of loud cheers from the audience. Harris, with an impressive record of standing by Israel, aims for a balanced approach that reflects the changes within the Democratic Party.
Looking at Trump, one could see him as one of Israel’s greatest friends. He recognized sovereignty over the Golan Heights, moved the embassy to Jerusalem, and led the Abraham Accords. In recent weeks, he has made significant statements in support of Israel, declaring that if the hostages do not return by the time he is back in power, Hamas will pay a heavy price.
However, with Trump – an unpredictable player who can change a policy as fast as send a tweet – there are also reasons for concern. Trump is already signaling his intent to reduce US economic support for NATO, and it’s hard to see how this isolationist approach, which enjoys high support in the party, won’t spill over into relations with Israel. Trump will also struggle to pass legislation concerning military support for Israel with a Senate controlled by Democrats. If Trump wants to reduce support for Ukraine, he may be required to make concessions regarding support for Israel as well.
Another issue that should concern the Israeli right is Trump’s level of willingness to recognize the establishment of a Palestinian state. In his last debate with Biden, when asked about his stance on a Palestinian state, Trump replied, “I’ll have to see.”
The upcoming term is expected to be crucial for US-Israel relations. The Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2016 with former president Barack Obama is set to be reopened in 2026. Despite pro-Israel statements from both candidates, there are several warning signs that should concern Israeli decision-makers.
Changing the question
Instead of asking, “Who is better for Israel?” we should focus on the question, “How does Israel remain a vital asset for America?” The demographic and political shifts in the US require us to develop a new strategy that underscores Israel’s importance to the average American citizen.
Both Republicans and Democrats have little appetite for wars and foreign policy adventures, and the growing deficit is causing many to want to reduce not only America’s role as the world’s policeman but also the massive budgets invested in the military-industrial complex.
Declarations that Trump or Harris are better for Israel are unnecessary. Unfortunately, some Israeli politicians think it’s their role to voice opinions on a race they have no influence over. The main thing Israel needs to do is seriously prepare for both scenarios.
If there’s one thing the current war has made abundantly clear, it’s that without significant backing from the US, Israel will find it very difficult, if not impossible, to deal with the enormous security challenges ahead. Israel’s current strategy, designed to maintain the status quo, is no longer sufficient.
Israel must develop a new and dynamic approach that adapts to the changes in the US and ensures its vitality in the eyes of the future administration and the American public.
The writer is an expert in Israel-US relations, the Middle East, and world Jewry, and is a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School Middle East Initiative.