In August, Israel achieved substantial tactical success, preemptively striking thousands of Hezbollah drone and missile launchers minutes before being deployed that were targeting Israel’s premier signal Intelligence Corps Unit 8200, Mossad headquarters, and an airbase near Tel Aviv.
However, do not confuse one-time tactical achievements against Hezbollah with enduring strategic success if Israel returns to the tit-for-tack kinetic war that has turned northern Israel into ghost towns, with its citizens unsure whether they can ever go home.
According to Ephraim Inbar and Menachem Bacharach of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), “In recent decades, Israel has often displayed containment/restraint in its national security behavior, preferring to restrain its reactions to provocations rather than escalating the conflict. …Yet containment erodes deterrence, allows the adversary time for a military build-up and routinizes its use of force; allows incremental increases in acceptable doses of violence… undermining international legitimacy for strong military reactions.”
To have strategic success, one needs a lasting vision and a blueprint to protect the North long-term. Based on my many trips to Israel since October, with troops on the northern frontlines from Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra to Metulla, with families on the border – and speaking with senior political, intelligence, security, and defense officials – I am not sure there is the political will to implement an enduring strategy for the North.
The IDF knows what to do to degrade Hezbollah and reconquer southern Lebanon if called upon by the government. But how will Israeli society hold up to massive attacks throughout the country after eleven months of war with a lesser enemy in the South?
At present, Hezbollah, or should I say Iran, is winning, creating an unending war of attrition. Unlike Israel, Iran and Hezbollah are acting on their strategy. According to The Jerusalem Post’s Seth Frantzman, Hezbollah’s plan is “to escalate tensions without triggering a full-scale war by keeping Israel on high alert and expanding its attacks.”
IRAN’S STRATEGIC patience to destroy Israel over time, with Hezbollah in Lebanon being the leading arm of the ring of fire surrounding and degrading Israel, is an effective policy that cannot be contained without restoring real deterrence.
Yoav Gallant
After October 7, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was one of the only members of the cabinet who wanted to use October 7 as an opportunity to deal with Israel’s primary proxy threat, Hezbollah. Israel was in crisis mode, focused on Gaza. It chose not to fight two offensive wars at the same time. In addition, US pressure had a strong restraining effect on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. So, Galant was overruled, allowing the North to become a shooting gallery for Hezbollah.
Israel has upwards of 100,000 citizens evacuated from their communities with no return in sight, while hundreds of thousands of others in the North live in fear, never knowing whether Israel’s anti-missile systems will be overwhelmed and unable to defend them.
Israel will have to make a strategic decision on whether to reconquer southern Lebanon to enable citizens of northern Israel to return to their homes. I was told months ago that Netanyahu was willing to accept a 10-kilometer withdrawal of Hezbollah, far less than what UN Security Council Resolution 1701 requires.
In Israel’s defense, they do not have the unconditional support of the United States for diplomatic protection and for a reliable supply line for a northern war, which will require much more munitions and weapons than the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza.
Since the international community will ignore the provocative actions of Iran and its proxies, that means America and Israel’s diplomatic strategy is to convince Iran they will lose Hezbollah as a deterrent threat unless it moves them north of the Litani River, as was mandated by Resolution 1701.
Suppose America’s diplomat Amos Hochstein is unable to negotiate a Hezbollah withdrawal according to 1701 with absolute security guarantees, not the useless words that followed the Lebanon War in 2006, where the UNIFIL force and the Lebanese Armed Forces stood by, doing nothing to hinder the rearmament of Hezbollah’s massive missile inventory.
US elections
IT IS election season in America, and with a change of administration, Israel does not know how the US will respond to a full-scale war in the North. American hopes are pinned on a Gaza hostage deal, which they believe will lead to quiet in the North, avoiding a regional war. Then there is the wild card of what President Joe Biden will do during his remaining days in office if Donald Trump wins in November and Israel decides to escalate its war in the North.
What Israel should say to its best friend, the United States, is that we cannot tolerate an unceasing Hezbollah threat, and we will need to act. What would you do if Mexican drug cartels turned southern California or Texas into ghost towns? For any administration, greenlighting an Israeli attack against Hezbollah will be a hard pill to swallow, as most see Iran and its proxies as not a significant threat to America and a major Middle East war being a greater danger to US interests.
Israel needs another year or two to figure out a tactical defense to stop the mortars and anti-tank weapons and effectively thwart drone attacks that are not containable by the current anti-missile systems. The further development of kinetic offensive drones or the Iron Beam laser system could accomplish this.
But make no mistake: For Israel’s long-term survival, it cannot live with Hezbollah hovering over the North with over 200,000 projectiles, many precision-guided and capable of reaching Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Eilat, and Dimona, the nuclear facility in Israel’s South. If Israel does not act against Hezbollah, assuming there is no diplomatic agreement, it will put its northern citizens in continual jeopardy.
Israel needs to return to its core doctrines:
• Fighting short wars;
• Not fighting on its territory;
• Clear-cut victories to create long-standing deterrence.
Without the political will to implement a Hezbollah and Iran strategy, Israel will suffer wars of attrition on multiple fronts, undermining America’s goal to foster diplomatic initiatives between the Jewish state and the greater Muslim world as Israel will be perceived as not the strong military force with which to ally.
As the pro-Iranian media outlet Al-Jazeera wrote at the start of the war, “It’s a win-win for Hezbollah… Hezbollah does not need to cross the border to keep Israel locked into the prospect of a two-front war.”
So, the question is, does Netanyahu have the resolve and determination to implement a strategy for the North that will allow the residents to live safely and securely?
The writer is the director of MEPIN (Middle East Political Information Network) and Mandel Strategies, a consulting firm for business and government officials in the Middle East. He regularly briefs members of Congress and their foreign policy aides. He is the senior security editor for The Jerusalem Report and a regular contributor to The Hill.