The Lebanese Hezbollah has lost the propaganda and psychological warfare battle in the current confrontations – decisively so. Everyone is now confident that the party and its leader are lying regarding the operations they are carrying out against Israel. Israel preempted the attack that Hezbollah intended to carry out on August 25, launching a major preemptive strike that aborted its attack about half an hour before its execution, according to reliable reports.
Israeli infiltration operations against the intelligence and communications of other parties are not new. Israel has done so several times in the various stages of its regional conflict, as it did with Iran, which has become almost like an open book for the Israeli army and intelligence agencies. It seems that this book will remain open for a long time, given the naive state of denial adopted by the Iranian authorities.
The direct reason for the Israeli preemptive strike is not only the availability of reliable information for the attack but also because the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone beyond the idea of rules of engagement and now does what it sees as necessary for achieving its strategic goals and protecting the security of Israel.
As for the infiltration of Hezbollah’s information and communications systems, this is not new either. All Israeli operations carried out since last October 7 relied on accurate intelligence information that enabled Israel to continuously hunt down Hezbollah leaders and officials. Fuad Shukr was the latest casualty of this formidable infiltration, which Hezbollah, as usual, has not and will certainly not admit. Instead, it will remain in a state of denial that it derives from its Iranian sponsors.
Some experts think that there are definite and clear betrayals among the senior leaders of the party, but this is highly likely. However, the infiltration of Hezbollah’s communications systems to obtain information cannot be ruled out, especially since these technical systems have been hacked in their home country, Iran. This explains the difficulty of Israel reaching the “deranged” terrorist Yahya Sinwar, leader of the Hamas terror militia in the Gaza Strip, who often does not rely on any technical equipment in communicating with the rest of the terrorist elements.
HEZBOLLAH CLAIMED after the Israeli preemptive operation that it was able to complete the first phase of retaliation for the assassination of Shukr. This is remarkable as neither the objectives nor any significant operational results have been achieved during this phase, which raises the question of whether these inane media stunts, which only provoke further attacks against Lebanon and its people, serve any purpose.
Of course, Hezbollah has not admitted that its missile bases and platforms were the object of an Israeli preemptive operation. However, the terrorist group’s recourse to some 340 old Katyusha rockets and two hundred drones confirms the neutralization of most of the rocket launchers. Hezbollah had no choice but to use obsolete rockets, knowing in advance that they would not reach the desired target of the attack.
The justifications being spread by Hezbollah supporters in misinformed analyses, or on social media, do not convince me. These suggest that the use of Katyushas served to mislead Israeli radar, surveillance systems, ground defenses and anti-aircraft networks so that the drones launched by Hezbollah could reach their targets deep inside Israel.
Missile saturation
This is believed to be an imitation of a well-known military tactic known as missile saturation, which has been used in several modern wars. However, the evidence confirms that the drones did not hit any of the strategic targets for which Hezbollah repeatedly claimed to have precise coordinates.
It is clear that Hezbollah benefits greatly from Israel’s tendency to avoid propaganda and focus on field work, content with quietly achieving its goals. This provides an opportunity for the party to fill the media vacuum with its version of the story. This does not seem to concern the Israelis, as their main concern is to curb and neutralize any regional threat and foil any plans to target Israel’s internal security and strike its depth, undermining Israel’s image and reputation.
IT IS certain that Hezbollah does not want to wage a broad war against Israel because it knows very well, as does Iran, that this time is different, and the cost of this attack could be the end of the party’s existence. Hezbollah sees the scenario of the Hamas terror militia in the Gaza Strip before its eyes.
Therefore, Hassan Nasrallah does not want to be alone and besieged underground, and neither does Iran want Hezbollah to suffer a similar fate to that of Hamas terrorists, especially since Hezbollah is the crown jewel of Iran’s expansionist project in the Middle East.
Its collapse would mean the end of the myth of Iranian strategic expansion and force Tehran to adhere to its geographical borders and undermine the strategy of proxy war, forcing it to change its military doctrine to become like any natural state. This would mean a loss of all the enormous financial and human resources that the Iranian regime has spent over many years building a network of regional militias that serve as the spearhead of its expansionist project.
All of the above raises an important question about what is to come and be expected. The Iranian regime does not seem comfortable coexisting with the repeated humiliations by Israel, which has tarnished its reputation and shattered its image. The Iranian regime had heavily banked on reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and claiming that it had backed down from retaliating against Israel in support of the Palestinian people. However, this opportunity remains elusive.
A conflict of interest
There appears to be a conflict of interests between Sinwar, who no longer has options other than continuing the fight, and Iran, which sees a ceasefire in the Gaza war as a lifeline for its tarnished reputation. The most likely scenario is that the lack of direct communication between the mullahs’ regime and Sinwar is what produces this state of ambiguity, misjudgment, and lack of coordination between the two parties – a situation that did not exist during assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s leadership of the terrorist militia when he shuttled between Doha and Tehran.
As for Hezbollah, it will most likely settle for skirmishes and propaganda operations at the cost of the blood of its top figures in order to claim that it has made good on its threats against Israel, which no longer feels alarmed by such threats. Instead, the Jewish state has moved to implement another plan to neutralize the terrorist threat from the West Bank after it became convinced of the weakness of the northern menace.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.