A survey published on Monday, a day before the US presidential debate, provided a glimpse of how Jewish Americans will vote: for Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris – and by a wide margin at that.
This is unsurprising and is consistent with the lean of the Jewish vote for approximately 50 years. If Republican nominee Donald Trump hoped that new factors this election season – the Israel-Hamas War and rising antisemitism – would sway the needle, the numbers do not support this.
There are, no doubt, American Jews sitting on the fence, watching their sense of safety plummet in the place it was promised to be maintained, or unhappy with the Biden administration’s management of hostage negotiations. Trump’s tactics have not worked so far, however, so there is no indication that he will succeed in getting those votes. Should he still mark this as a goal, he should try something different.
Just last week, Trump told a gathering of Republican Jews, “You’re not going to have an Israel if she [Harris] becomes president... Israel will no longer exist... I don’t understand how anybody can support them, and I say it constantly: If you had them to support and you were Jewish, you have to have your head examined. They’ve been very bad for you.”
“If they win, Israel is gone,” he continued. “Just remember that. If they win, Israel is gone. You can forget about Israel. That’s what’s going to happen. So, they have to get out on November 5, and they have to vote for Trump. If they don’t, I think it’s going to be a very terrible situation.”
Maybe it’s the off-putting tone, or maybe Jewish voters on a broad scale aren’t convinced by the message, but this warning marked an escalation in the campaign to draw them in, with Trump frustrated that they haven’t been.
“If Kamala Harris wins, terrorist armies will wage an unceasing war to drive Jews out of the Holy Land,” he said at the same conference. The thing is, they already have, and it hasn’t shifted the numbers. Perhaps it is Harris’s stability and history on the Israel issue, but a majority of Jews clearly aren’t convinced by Trump.
Jewish advocates were particularly miffed by Trump’s insinuation of the trope of dual loyalty – to the US and Israel – in his comment, “You’ll never survive if they get in, and our country, America, will never survive if they get in.”
Anti-Defamation League CEO Jonathan Greenblatt told NBC, “It’s not the first time it’s happened with President Trump. I mean, we saw this when he was in office.”
The Monday poll showed that 68% of Jewish voters plan to vote for Harris, and 25% plan to vote for Trump. Data from the Pew Research Center just about aligns (64-26). The survey also found that 87% of American Jewish voters support the Biden administration’s efforts to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal.
The poll was conducted by the Jewish Democratic Council of America, with the JDCA-affiliated Jewish Electorate Institute. The two groups worked with GBAO, a company that polls for liberal and Democratic-affiliated groups. The survey reached 800 voters between August 27 and September 1 via text to Web, a system in which potential respondents are reached via text message and then directed to an Internet poll.
Impact of antisemitism
While antisemitism and the war may have shifted stances on a personal level, we aren’t seeing this in the numbers. A survey of Pennsylvania Jewish voters conducted earlier this month by the Honan Strategy Group and shared with NBC found support figures at 55-43. This is a drop, but is still a win by a large margin.
American Jews have different, perhaps sharper, concerns this election round. And there may be people on the fence who Trump could sway to gain support.
But what he has been doing – shaming Jews for voting Democrat and painting himself as the sole savior for the Middle East – clearly isn’t getting him what he wants. He’s going to have to do something different.
Right now, for those Jews who don’t feel properly supported and represented by the Biden administration and the Harris-Walz campaign, there isn’t a good alternative, and unlike in Israel, there aren’t a million alternatives – there’s one. Trump may have this one opportunity with the debate to sway what little hold he has.