Secretary-general of the Hezbollah terror group, Hassan Nasrallah, has understood the extent of the fracture in his organization following recent events that occurred.
An Iranian drone launched by the Houthis from Yemen struck a residential building in Tel Aviv on July 18, killing 50-year-old Yevgeny Pridder. Less than 30 hours later, dozens of Israel Air Force planes flew from the Israeli border and destroyed facilities in the port of Hodeidah in Yemen - a crucial supply route for the Houthis.
On Monday, September 9, at noon, an Iranian drone operated by Hezbollah struck a building in Nahariya, about 130 km north of Tel Aviv.
The question is: Will the situation in Nahariya be treated the same as in Tel Aviv?
Will the political leadership instruct the IDF to deploy around 100 fighter jets for a powerful attack on the port of Beirut? Or perhaps direct attacks on another strategic site in Lebanon?
Choosing to overlook the Nahariya attack
The answer is, most likely, no. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will probably prefer to overlook the attack in Nahariya. The current assumption for residents of the north is that IDF strikes will continue to show restraint and that "the Hodeidah effect" is unlikely to be replicated in Beirut or another city in Lebanon.
Netanyahu has many things on his plate right now: a trip to the UN in New York, budget, and trying to navigate the Jewish high holidays without escalating the region into a religious war, as some of his coalition members aim for.
The last thing he needs right now is a high-intensity war with Iran’s Lebanese branch.
On a serious note, Netanyahu is in real trouble. He has become entangled in a political, military, and public quagmire that even a magician like him has found challenging to unravel.
Luckily for Netanyahu, Nasrallah is also in a similar problematic situation.
He, too, is entangled with himself, the desires of Iran, and internal resistance from Lebanese citizens.
Major General Ori Gordine
Netanyahu’s fortune is that Major General Ori Gordin leads the Northern Command. The man is no fool. Gordin is an individual who can, at any time, restrain and curb aggressive intentions. This is why the IDF has managed to control the intensity of the clashes between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iraq over the past 11 months.
Gordin has managed to cause damage to the other side while preventing them from considering wild offensive intentions.
The attacks this past week in Syria attributed to Israel were highly significant. It was a severe blow to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah’s armament, and the pro-Iranian forces in Syria.
Nasrallah has suffered several painful blows in recent days. The Israel Air Force has carried out over a hundred strikes in Lebanon since last Wednesday. The IDF has been systematically targeting Hezbollah’s launchers in Lebanon, causing severe damage to the organization’s arms depots.
Thanks to Israel, Hezbollah has gone from a well-organized, trained army to an organization struggling to maintain a structured system.
In other words, orders from Nasrallah are not being transmitted to the field in an organized and precise manner.
Nasrallah understood that he was in a bind: How would he escape this situation without being hurt even more?
The Nahariya test
He may have relied on the fact that the “Nahariya test” will only pass with a passing grade.
Simply put, Nasrallah relied on Netanyahu continuing to treat situations along the northern and southern borders as less important than central Israel.