As US President Joe Biden’s administration nears its conclusion, it is timely to evaluate the performance of the CIA, a cornerstone of US national security.
The agency has faced formidable challenges, including the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and escalating tensions with powers like Russia and China. These situations have tested the CIA’s adaptability and effectiveness in a tumultuous global landscape.
According to Larry Pfeiffer, a former intelligence official who served under six CIA Directors, Biden values intelligence in decision-making and has worked to ensure it remains free from political interference. Pfeiffer also highlights the unique role of CIA Director William Burns, whose background in diplomacy has shaped the agency’s approach under Biden’s tenure.
While much remains behind closed doors, this analysis reflects a small portion of what can be publicly examined. This is essential to explore the CIA’s successes and failures during the Biden era, assessing how it has navigated modern geopolitical challenges. From counterterrorism operations to a strategic pivot toward great power competition, the CIA’s performance offers insight into the Biden administration’s approach to national security.
UNDER BIDEN, the CIA has maintained its counterterrorism focus with notable successes, including the drone strike in Kabul in July 2022 that eliminated al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. Yet, the agency has faced setbacks, such as the misjudged rapid collapse of the Afghan government during the 2021 withdrawal, which significantly tarnished the credibility of US intelligence.
Simultaneously, there has been a strategic pivot towards countering global powers like China and Russia. This shift, under CIA Director William Burns, moves resources from a primarily counterterrorism focus to addressing the challenges posed by these state actors. This includes ramping up intelligence operations in the Indo-Pacific to monitor China’s military and economic activities, and intensifying efforts against Russia, particularly in light of the Ukraine conflict. The agency’s accurate intelligence on Russian activities has informed US and NATO strategies, although the rapid evolution of these conflicts has tested the CIA’s capacity to deliver timely, actionable intelligence.
Despite a successful adaptation to these global dynamics, balancing the focus between state and non-state threats poses ongoing challenges. Critics express concerns over potential intelligence gaps due to the redistribution of resources. However, the CIA’s recruitment and technological enhancements in cyber and surveillance, along with strengthened international partnerships, continue to support its strategic shift, though the efficacy of this realignment remains under scrutiny.
THE APPOINTMENT of William Burns as CIA director signified a pivotal change, with Burns leveraging his diplomatic expertise to merge intelligence with diplomacy and enhance cybersecurity and human intelligence (HUMINT) efforts. Under his guidance, the CIA has restructured to better address great power competition, particularly focusing on China and Russia, by reallocating resources and investing in advanced technologies to boost intelligence capabilities.
Emphasizing the agency's independence
Burns has emphasized the CIA’s independence, ensuring that intelligence assessments remain objective and unaffected by political bias, a critical factor in dealing with complex global issues. Additionally, the agency has ramped up its cybersecurity measures and expanded counterintelligence efforts, establishing specialized units to tackle cyber threats and enhancing HUMINT in challenging regions like China and Russia.
These changes also include a greater emphasis on training operatives with regional expertise and adopting innovative technologies for covert operations. Burns has encouraged a culture of accountability and transparency, aiming to modernize the CIA and make it more adaptable to emerging threats, thereby ensuring it remains equipped to navigate the intricate security landscape of the 21st century.
The CIA’s precise and timely intelligence has been crucial in shaping US responses to global events like the Ukraine crisis and the Afghanistan withdrawal. During the Ukraine crisis, the agency’s detailed assessments of Russian military plans enabled effective US and allied responses, including sanctions and military support, bolstering the credibility of US intelligence globally.
However, the intelligence failures during the Afghanistan withdrawal highlighted significant challenges, particularly the unexpected rapid collapse of the Afghan government, which undermined confidence in US intelligence and complicated evacuation efforts.
Technologically, while the CIA has embraced AI to enhance data processing and cyber defense capabilities – improving threat detection and response – critics argue that the pace of technological adoption is too slow to match advancements by adversaries. This lag threatens to compromise the agency’s effectiveness against state and non-state actors using advanced digital tools.
To counter these threats, the CIA has intensified cyber operations to disrupt enemy networks and protect US infrastructure, while continuously adapting to emerging technologies like quantum computing and AI-generated content. These advancements are essential to maintaining the CIA’s relevance in a rapidly evolving security landscape, ensuring it remains equipped to support US foreign policy effectively.
UNDER BIDEN the CIA has enhanced its intelligence partnerships with key global allies, recognizing that international cooperation is essential to tackle transnational threats like terrorism and cyberattacks. The revitalization of the Five Eyes alliance with countries like the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand has significantly enhanced intelligence sharing on issues such as Russian military activities and Chinese espionage, strengthening global security.
Additionally, the agency has broadened its relationships with strategic partners in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. For instance, collaborations with Japan and South Korea are pivotal in countering North Korean threats, while partnerships in the Middle East address challenges from Iranian influence and terrorism.
However, expanding these intelligence partnerships is not without difficulties. Navigating diplomatic sensitivities and differing political agendas requires careful handling, especially with partners concerned about human rights issues. Missteps or intelligence failures can strain these relationships, potentially undermining trust and the effectiveness of joint operations.
Despite such challenges, the CIA’s efforts in forging and maintaining robust global partnerships have largely been successful, playing a crucial role in advancing US foreign policy and addressing complex international threats. Ensuring these alliances remain strong and adaptable is vital for continuing to meet the demands of an evolving global security landscape.
The CIA has faced significant challenges in managing the threat from Iran during Biden’s tenure. Efforts to counter Iran’s influence and its proxy networks, including groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels, and the Popular Mobilization Forces, have had limited success. These groups continue to exert substantial influence despite US sanctions and other measures.
Iran’s ability to circumvent international pressures through covert operations and asymmetric warfare has made it difficult for the CIA to disrupt its regional influence effectively. The ongoing negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action have also impacted the agency’s operations, as taking aggressive actions against Iranian proxies might jeopardize diplomatic efforts.
In conclusion, the CIA’s trajectory during the Biden era reveals both significant successes and notable challenges. The agency has shown resilience, from counterterrorism victories to adapting its focus toward great power competition and embracing technological advancements. However, it has faced setbacks, particularly in intelligence accuracy during the Afghanistan withdrawal and its efforts to counter Iran’s influence.
Under William Burns, the CIA has made progress in depoliticizing intelligence and strengthening global partnerships, but ongoing challenges demand further evolution. Embracing new technologies and refining strategies to counter threats from both state and non-state actors will be critical. The agency must balance secrecy with accountability to maintain public trust while executing its vital missions.
Ultimately, the CIA’s performance under Biden reflects both continuity and change, underscoring the complexities of safeguarding national security. As the agency moves forward, its ability to learn from past experiences and address its weaknesses will shape its future success in protecting US interests on the global stage.
The writer is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher based in Washington, with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His new book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com and on X @EQFARD.