Recently, Russia and Iran have been fighting over the Zangezur Corridor, a transport route that links Azerbaijan proper with the Nakhchivan enclave in Azerbaijan, thus establishing a new route linking Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Many high-level Russian officials in recent days have expressed support for this corridor, which will link Azerbaijan to Russia and Turkey, bypassing Armenian checkpoints. Iran is extremely unhappy with Russia’s support for this corridor, as it would sever the geographic connection between Yerevan and Tehran if this corridor is under Azerbaijani sovereignty rather than Armenian rule.
An official in the Iranian Foreign Ministry told the Middle East Eye: “As the supreme leader has emphasized, our border with Armenia must remain intact and any corridor should be established with that in mind… Our military power would only be deployed in response to any attempt to sever Iran’s border with Armenia.”
In the face of such Iranian threats, the strong partnership between Baku and Moscow exists despite Azerbaijan’s multi-vector policy, which seeks to balance the West’s interests in Ukraine with a desire to avoid confrontation with Russia as a former Soviet bloc country.
This poses major challenges for Tehran. On the one hand, Baku is helping the West to wean itself off Russian oil and gas by offering itself as a viable alternative that can provide Europe with energy security. Baku supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has sent humanitarian aid to Kyiv.
Yet at the same time, Baku has not been doing it in a way that prevents it from having relations with Putin, as the Aliyev government does not believe its alliance with the West is a reason to self-destruct. The Azerbaijanis have witnessed how much the Ukrainian people have suffered because of their leadership’s desire to join NATO and do not believe that NATO membership is worth the price. For this reason, Azerbaijan is content to be just an ally of NATO and not a member.
Due to their understanding of what is at stake for them as a former Soviet bloc country if they antagonize Putin, the Azerbaijanis permitted Putin to do damage control on his public image by meeting with several lower-level Azerbaijani officials and sign a couple of non-consequential agreements, as saying no to Putin would have put Baku in an uncomfortable position.
Meanwhile, Putin’s recent visit to Baku has strengthened Azerbaijan to the detriment of Iran and its proxies, as demonstrated by Russia’s support of the Zangezur Corridor, which is of pivotal importance to the Azerbaijani people.
The attempted overthrow of the Armenian government
WHILE TEHRAN is fuming over Putin’s support for using the Zangezur Corridor, Russia has attempted to overthrow the Armenian government and replace it with a more friendly regime. In a recent statement, the Investigative Committee of the Republic of Armenia said seven people would be charged with “preparing to usurp power… using violence and the threat of violence to take over the powers of government.”
Politico reported that six Armenians were recruited to undergo three months of training in Russia and were paid monthly salaries of 220,000 rubles ($2,377) while learning how to use weaponry. They also reportedly underwent background checks and polygraph tests to determine their allegiance, before being transferred to the Arbat military base in Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia.
It appears that Moscow wanted to replace the Pashinyan government because they withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which the Armenian government views to be “creating threats to Armenia’s security, continued existence and statehood.” Armenia was one of the founding members of the CSTO, established in 1992 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition to Russia, the CSTO consists of Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
For decades, Russia had backed Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan, enabling the Armenians to control Karabakh and the seven Azerbaijani districts in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions for 30 years. Putin’s ties with the Caucuses country began to deteriorate after the Pashinyan government took over in 2018; this trend further continued after Azerbaijan’s victory during the second Karabakh War and the subsequent military operation that took place after that. The Armenians felt that the Russians were not supportive enough in this conflict.
Despite that the Pashinyan government is closer to the West and Iran than it is to Moscow presently, it is critical to recall that trade relations between Armenia and Russia remain strong, despite the recent coup attempt. Armenia remains the main hub for circumventing the West’s anti-Russian sanctions.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk cited the following figures during his recent visit to Yerevan: “In 2023, the volume of mutual trade between Armenia and Russia increased by 55.8%, reaching $7.4 billion. This year, the growth rate is even higher; in the first half of the year, the trade turnover was $8.4 billion, and by the end of the year we can reach $14-16 billion. For comparison, in 2020, this volume was only $2.3 billion.”
According to Overchuk, by the end of 2024, the volume of trade turnover between Armenia and Russia may reach $14 to $16 billion. Overchuk noted that the economic cooperation between the two countries is developing dynamically and covers almost all sectors of the economy.
It is obvious that the Armenian economy, given its small volume, does not have its own resources for such trade turnover. A paradoxical picture emerges when on the one hand the West finances Ukraine’s resistance against Russian aggression, and on the other hand allows Armenia to make money on this very aggression, actually encouraging re-export schemes through Armenia, allowing the Russian economy to continue the war against Ukraine.
At the same time, the leading American PR agency Edelman is openly working for Russian Armenian oligarch Ruben Vardanyan. It is noteworthy that while commenting on the unnaturally growing trade turnover between Armenia and Russia, as well as the increasing military cooperation between Russia and Armenia, the US State Department in September officially called it “Armenia’s sovereign right.”
However, some Western commentators have been critical of Putin’s recent visit to Azerbaijan, claiming that Baku is taking a pro-Russian and anti-Western stance, while remaining silent on all of the ongoing trade between Armenia and Russia. This represents a double standard.
The writer is a Middle East scholar and commentator on the region.