September 27, 2024, will go down in history as one of the most impressive days in Israel’s military legacy, and perhaps even in the history of the entire Middle East. Shortly after the Israeli prime minister’s speech on the most important stage in the world, one of the greatest arch-terrorists of our time was assassinated in a spectacular operation by the IDF and Israeli security forces.
Years of showmanship speeches and threats of hitting targets “far beyond Haifa” went down in flames on Friday. This was all accomplished under the direction of Israel’s military chief of staff, defense minister, and yes – also the prime minister.
One can only imagine what went on behind the scenes of this decision, with the highest systems of risk management, and in the end one decision – courageous and bold. The IDF brought the opportunity, but it was the prime minister who had to “press the button,” and in contrast to past hesitations – he pressed it.
“A new order” – this is what the operation was called, and it’s hard not to connect it to the “Curse and Blessing” speech that Netanyahu gave immediately preceding it at the UN. The prime minister presented two maps: in one hand, he held the map of “Curse and Terror” which showed Iran and its proxies, its expansion in the Middle East, and the extent of its threat to regional stability.
In his other hand, he held the map of “Blessing and Peace” – the same map he presented exactly a year ago on the exact same stage, which shows how the Middle East will change after the normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. “Peace will make the Middle East a paradise,” he said. “The choice is between the curse of Iranian aggression and the blessing of reconciliation between Jews and Arabs.”
The two maps presented by the prime minister clearly demonstrate the combination of efforts required for the “new order”: eradicating the “curse,” alongside building the “blessing.” Each effort on its own will not yield results, only the powerful combination of them.
Netanyahu has been working for 11 months to eradicate the “curse,” yet there is no evident progress in building the “blessing” – and perhaps even a regression. How does he plan to translate the optimistic map he presented, for the second year in a row, into the reality of our lives?
NETANYAHU VERY much wants normalization. He wanted it before October 7, and he wants it even more since then. In his speech on Friday, it was clear that he recognizes the importance of the move toward the “new order” he aspires to, and knows that it is the key to establishing the Abraham Alliance, the coalition of moderate countries that will lead the Middle East to stability.
Yet in the face of the optimistic map, while Netanyahu declares that “Israel has made a decision to promote the blessing – partnership for peace with our neighbors,” Netanyahu encounters a cold diplomatic shower: the UN hall was practically empty, with one chair in particular vacant – that of Saudi Arabia. The weak political hand that has accompanied Netanyahu for the past year, and perhaps even longer, cried out from the empty UN seats on Friday.
It may be that Netanyahu still thinks he can bring about normalization and an expansion of the Abraham Accords without paying a “price” in Palestinian currency. That way, he can eat his Saudi cake and still keep his political coalition in the Knesset intact. But if there was a chance for this before October 7, today it no longer exists, and that is not going to change. Though Netanyahu recognizes the path to a “new order” is through normalization with the Saudis, he completely ignores the fact that the key to the Saudi deal lies in providing the Palestinians with a political horizon. That’s the formula, no matter how you look at it.
Launching Northern Arrows was bold
The decision to launch Operation Northern Arrows was bold. The decision to assassinate Nasrallah was even bolder. This is the time for bold leadership – and only for that. This is the time to continue striking terrorism with military might. This is also the time to build the future with political might. The State of Israel has the historic opportunity to bring about a profound strategic change in the Middle East that will strengthen its security for years to come.
Netanyahu has the opportunity of his life to be remembered in the history books not only as the man who was at the helm of the terrible massacre of October 7, but as “Mr. New Order.” He was very bold in pressing the button on “removing the curse.” Does he have the courage to do what it takes to realize the “blessing” as well?
The writer is a strategy adviser and a member of Forum Dvorah. She is a former adviser at the National Security Council and the Prime Minister’s Office.
This article was originally published in Hebrew by N12: www.mako.co.il.