The Tehran Times recently reported that the construction of the Zangezur Corridor connecting Nachshivan Province to Azerbaijan is unacceptable: “The proposed ‘Zangezur’ corridor would slice through Armenia’s historic Syunik province, a region that has shared a border with Iran for centuries. Iran has repeatedly reiterated its opposition to the proposed corridor, emphasizing its commitment to preserve and protect its historic borders as well as geopolitical stability in the region.” The Iranian newspaper reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declared that any threat to the country’s neighbors’ territorial integrity and its own borders crosses a “red line.”
In the wake of the elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, as well as the pager attacks targeting Hezbollah, the question remains: Is the Zangezur Corridor still Tehran’s red line? At a time when Israel is fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and even the Houthis in Yemen, Tehran is finding itself increasingly hard hit. Some Arab countries have even allowed the use of their airspace to intercept Iranian missiles aimed at Israel. Indeed, some Muslim countries are content to remain passive while Israel resolves the Iranian issue once and for all.
In an atmosphere like this, when the Shia Crescent stretching from Lebanon to Yemen is crumbling under heavy assault, how can Iran be preoccupied with the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor? A huge part of the corridor runs through Armenian territory and does not affect Iran at all.
In fact, the corridor, which was recently endorsed by the Russians, is expected to be under Russian supervision and control. Russia enjoys a good relationship with Tehran. For decades, the Russians have been stationed along the Iranian-Armenian border, and this presence never bothered Iran in the slightest. Given the numerous challenges Iran faces in the Middle East region, including the challenge to its control over four Arab capitals, why raise such a fuss now? Perhaps the Zangezur Corridor is nothing more than a pretext to express its dissatisfaction with Russia over issues that have nothing to do with the Caucasus.
What Iran’s red line may really be about is its attempt to try and maintain control in the region at a time when Armenia is getting closer to the West at Iran’s expense. Azerbaijan has a strategic alliance with Israel, Iran’s main foe in the region, and Turkey and Russia are on the ascent in the region as well. In such an environment, Tehran loses, which is likely why they oppose the Zangezur Corridor.
It has always been a thorn in Iran’s side that Azerbaijan, a country with a Shia majority that used to be part of the Persian Empire, totally rejects Iran’s fundamentalist interpretation of Islam and chooses a partnership with Israel over the Islamic Republic. Iran has always found it frustrating that they have been able to exert influence over Baghdad, Damascus, Sanaa, and Beirut, but not over Baku. This remains the situation, even though Iran has a sizable Azerbaijani population, and the current president of Iran is an ethnic Azerbaijani.
Iran is losing ground
Now that Iran is losing ground in the Middle East, they must concede and allow the crossing of their red line on the Zangezur Corridor. They are too preoccupied with defending Hezbollah, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, and the Houthis to care about Russia’s endorsement of the Zangezur Corridor and its potential implementation within the framework of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Another reason Tehran opposes it is because it would strengthen the West and weaken Iran. Land-locked Armenia will have more trade options than a state that is viewed as an international pariah and a global sponsor of terrorism, a situation that the mullahs are not comfortable with.
At present, there isn’t much Iran can do to challenge Azerbaijani control over the Zangezur Corridor under Russian auspices. If the Armenian leadership has demonstrated that they are willing to allow Ruben Vardanyan, the leader of the Karabakh Armenians, to continue to sit in a Baku jail only to ensure that a peace agreement is signed with Baku, then why would they interfere with Russia controlling the Zangezur Corridor over their territory for the sake of peace? Why bother trading with Iran when Armenia can soon trade with France, Britain, and the US, utilizing Turkish and Azerbaijani territory in the framework of a peace agreement? This leaves Tehran out in the cold in the Caucasus, with no wins to show in the foreseeable future as Israel closes in on the mullahs and their proxies.
The writer is a Middle East scholar and commentator on the region.