In an unprecedented and historic operation, the Israeli Air Force targeted key military sites in Iran. This escalation marks a pivotal moment, with Iran’s response now determining the course of events. Although Iran’s leadership has publicly vowed to retaliate, significant concerns remain about the risks of a larger regional conflict.
After a prolonged period of restraint, the Israeli Air Force launched a historic assault on Iranian soil from Friday night into Saturday morning.
Hitting their mark
The operation was a direct response to Iran’s missile attacks on Israel during Rosh Hashanah. At the behest of the US government, which seeks to avoid further escalation, Israel refrained from targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil infrastructure, instead focusing solely on military sites.
The strikes targeted missile launch and storage facilities, Revolutionary Guard command centers, and air defense systems, aiming to limit Iran’s immediate military response capabilities.
Iranian media quickly claimed that all attacks were intercepted, likely to preserve the regime’s image. However, this does not preclude a response. Iran’s leadership now faces a complex decision. On one hand, Israel’s choice to avoid nuclear and oil facilities signals restraint but also a capability to strike if necessary. On the other, retaliation could bring Iran into a broader conflict, especially with an unprecedented US military presence in the region.
Despite Iranian media’s attempts to project normalcy, the impact of these events on both countries is clear. This is the first instance since the Iran-Iraq War that Tehran has been hit directly, challenging the regime’s narrative of security. Israel, meanwhile, has overcome its previous reluctance to launch aerial strikes on Iran, a move that may reshape future interactions between the two nations.
Furthermore, Hezbollah’s perceived weakness in its standoff with Israel may have emboldened Israel to act, undermining Iran’s expectation of protection from such attacks. While it is too early to predict the outcomes, this night has changed the relationship between Iran and Israel in unprecedented ways, with significant implications for both nations.
Danny Citrinowicz is a research fellow in the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and served for 25 years in senior intelligence roles, including in IDF Military Intelligence and the Israeli Embassy in Washington.