Among the outdated principles Israel’s leadership is constantly invoking these days are “total victory” and “we alone can defend ourselves.”
As my grandkids might say, those concepts are “soooo last century.” I respond by reminding them that not only am I from the last century, I’m from the first half of the last century (b. 1947). That improves my thinking and perspective.
I’ve dealt with the “total victory” mantra here before. There have been few, if any, total victories in warfare since World War II. These days, conflicts end in stalemates or negotiated settlements. It’s essential to be on the stronger side, but it doesn’t mean that the other side ceases to exist.
The other outdated concept requires an even greater shift in thinking and policy: Israel must stop acting as if it is alone against the world, that it must fight all its enemies at the same time by itself, accepting aid from its allies while ignoring their political demands and interests.
Just over a year ago, Israel was close to being able to do away with much US military aid. Israel could have fended for itself, exported its weapons systems, and negotiated with the Americans and others over the weapons it needed for its defense. I wrote about that here, too, a little while back.
I also wrote, in September 2023, that it was time for Israel to get over its trauma from the surprise Egypt-Syria attack that set off the 1973 Mideast war.
Israel’s fresh trauma
Both points abruptly lost relevance two weeks after that September article appeared. On October 7, 2023, Hamas sent thousands of terrorists across the Gaza Strip border into Israel. They massacred, raped, and burned their way through Israeli villages, killing 1,200, most of them civilians, and abducting 251 others, dead and alive.
So the 1973 trauma has been replaced by a fresh one. The traumas are similar—surprise attacks that should have been thwarted by available intelligence and proper military deployments—shaking Israelis’ confidence in their government and military.
In the troubled and troubling year that has followed, the folly of the second principle, that Israel must do it alone and reject the demands of its allies, has become clearer.
Israel has needed a huge number of American weapons. An American THAAD antimissile battery has just arrived in Israel, along with the American soldiers to operate it, as part of the US’s efforts to help defend Israel from Iran. This goes along with the unprecedented deployment of US Navy battle groups near Iran.
Even so, analysts still relate to the war (which is taking place on between two and seven fronts, depending how you count) as a simple conflict between Israel and its enemies. It is far more significant and dangerous than that.
Though no one wants to say the words, this is a regional war. On one side are Israel, the Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, and their allies in the US and Europe. On the other side are Iran, its proxies in the region, and its allies—China, Russia, and even North Korea.
It’s a war between the two main world blocs that have emerged, finally, since the fall of the Soviet Union decades ago.
Israel plays a key but symbolic role. It’s the go-to enemy for Iran and its proxies. Evidence is mounting that Hamas was planning a much larger attack on Israel, in concert with Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, but for tactical reasons, Iran held back. It joined the battle only after a Hamas leader was assassinated in Iran, in a daring mission that Iran blames on Israel.
There is a “theater of the absurd” element here. A newspaper carried this headline: “Iran seeks international backing against Israel.” That followed Iran’s second missile barrage against Israel as Iran awaits an Israeli counterstrike.
The Iran in question is eight times the size of Israel and has 10 times as many people. It’s obvious, then, that in seeking “backing,” Iran is looking past Israel. It’s time for Israel to widen its field of vision as well.
No one seriously questions the fact that Israel is an exceptionally talented nation with military and technological capabilities that far exceed its size. But Israel cannot and should not fight this war on its own.
One danger is that allies will use Israel as their hammer to pound the Iranian nail. There are Americans calling for Israeli strikes against Iranian oil facilities and nuclear development sites—in other words, to do the dirty work for the West and, of course, to absorb the Iranian counterstrikes.
Another danger is that Israel will continue to reject American demands and suffer the consequences, from a slowdown in military assistance to economic repercussions. That would turn Israel into a weak and welcome target to Iran and its proxies on the borders.
Israel has yet to even acknowledge the damage this yearlong war has done to its economy. One leading credit firm has downgraded Israel’s rating by two steps, almost unheard of in this century. Once the war is over, Israel will have to deal with dire economic challenges, like rebuilding the decimated north and south, as well as reconstructing a much larger army, even after taking thousands of casualties since October 7 last year.
Israel is a proud nation, rightfully so in most cases. This is not one of those cases. Israel needs to work with the US and its other allies, especially Egypt and the Gulf states, to end the wars on its borders and deal with Iran-backed terrorism as far away as Yemen.
Israel doesn’t have to accept every request made by every ally, but it should pick its fights and fight quietly—not on TV and social media (or should I say, antisocial media).
If that means taking interests into account (even an election campaign), accepting demands that Israel would prefer to reject, so be it. The stakes are too high for Israel to obstruct the larger international goal—restraining Iran and ultimately defeating it.
Or as I used to tell my kids decades ago when a distasteful chore awaited them: “You don’t have to like it, you just have to do it.”
Mark Lavie has been covering the Middle East for major news outlets since 1972. His second book, Why Are We Still Afraid?, which follows his five-decade career and comes to a surprising conclusion, is available on Amazon.