The Afghan proverb “You have the watches; we have the time” underscores a timeless strategy: Wait out your foe to claim victory. Iran seems to be adopting a similar approach in its campaign against Israel, one that demands a continual rethinking of Israel’s response and the very nature of modern warfare.
Iran’s strategy is less about winning a swift, decisive war than about waging a “war of attrition.” Through its proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis – Iran is launching persistent, smaller-scale attacks to erode Israel’s resources, patience, and resolve over time. These groups, empowered by Iranian funding, arms, and training, keep Israel perpetually on guard, exacting a steady toll on its military, economy, and, not least of all, its psyche.
The intent is clear: Through sustained pressure, Iran seeks to fatigue Israel, goad it into strategic and tactical mistakes, and gradually diminish our emotional capacity to resist.
The attacks are relentless: rockets, missiles, suicide drones, and lone wolf raids at unpredictable intervals. Israel must maintain a state of high alert, draining its military and finances. The parallels to the Vietnam War or the US experience in Afghanistan are striking. Iran aims not for an immediate knockout but for a slow-motion weakening of Israel, exploiting the asymmetry of proxy warfare and hoping that Israel will just pack up and leave.
Israel must anticipate the evolving nature of these attacks. Iran’s proxies will likely deploy advanced drones: smaller, quieter, longer-range, and harder to detect. “Swarm” attacks, with numerous drones at once, have the potential to overwhelm defenses.
Terror strikes within Israel – on civilians, as we have seen this week with the ramming of the bus packed with soldiers, and on critical infrastructure – are also a growing risk, as are maritime attacks and potentially even the use of underwater drones or stealth technology. The scope of the threat is vast, demanding a continual and comprehensive reevaluation of Israeli strategy.
To counter this, Israel must prioritize readiness and rapid modernization. Investment in cutting-edge surveillance, air defenses, and cybersecurity are vital. Electronic warfare capabilities to disrupt enemy systems are also essential. Israel disarmed Iranian air defenses a few days ago, but the rockets and drones from the proxies have continued. Technical solutions alone are insufficient; Israel needs a multilayered defense strategy integrating air, land, sea, and cyber domains.
Israel cannot simply react
But Israel cannot simply react; it must shift the focus to undermining Iran’s will to fight in a manner that degrades the proxy threat. A strategy centered on attriting the enemies while preserving Israeli strength and morale is crucial.
This demands not just military prowess but programs to bolster societal resilience, prevent fatigue, and maintain unity in the face of relentless and unpredictable pressure. It requires diplomatic efforts to expose Iran’s proxy strategy and build international pressure, which is currently waning.
The Iranian-sponsored war of attrition is underway and has been for some time. Israel’s response will shape the future of the region. It must move beyond mere reaction and adopt a proactive strategy that addresses the nature of this new threat. This will require not only military adaptation but a renewed focus on fortifying the home front.
Israel must invest in programs that strengthen societal cohesion, providing therapy and resiliency training and supporting those communities most impacted by the constant attacks. Of critical importance as well is to ensure that the economic burden of perpetual defense does not become unsustainable.
The international community, too, has a critical role to play. It cannot turn a blind eye to Iran’s proxy strategy, allowing it to wage war while maintaining a veneer of deniability. World leaders must call out this cynical tactic and apply pressure on Tehran to halt its support for these destabilizing groups. This can only be accomplished with more sophisticated hasbara (public diplomacy).
Only by combining a robust defense with societal resilience and diplomatic pressure can Israel successfully navigate this war of attrition and secure its future. The watches may be ticking, but with foresight and determination, Israel can ensure it has the time and strength needed to endure.
Louis Libin is an expert in military strategies and innovation, and advises on and teaches military innovation, wireless systems, and emergency communications, at military colleges and agencies. He is the founder of a consulting group for emergency management, cybersecurity, IP, and communications.
Dr. Michael J. Salamon is a psychologist specializing in trauma and abuse. He is the director of ADC Psychological Services in Netanya and Hewlett, NY, and on staff at Northwell, New Hyde Park, NY.