In a remarkable political comeback by any standards, Donald Trump has been elected the forty-seventh president of the United States of America.
While it is too early to fully explain his victory, there are certain factors that seem clear.
Whatever the Biden administration’s economic achievements, too many Americans felt their living standards had continued to deteriorate and they were no better off.
Trump was able to increase his support among groups of voters who have historically been Democrat.
Kamala Harris as a liberal Democrat was seen as more of a risk by center-ground voters than the moderate Joe Biden four years ago.
Despite being vice president, she had less name recognition than Donald Trump. And once again, the question was whether significant numbers of Americans are ready for a woman president.
His victory is also yet another wake up call to the Left, Center-Left and even Center-Right that maverick or populist right-wing candidates worldwide are attracting a broad spectrum of voters who feel squeezed financially, threatened by poorly managed, out-of-control immigration and perturbed that too many people in today’s world are no longer willing to define what a woman is.
At this pivotal moment in history, it most definitely matters who holds the office of US president and the nature of the leadership he (or she) provides. Talk of declining US influence with the rise of new global powers such as China and India is off the mark.
The US remains the most powerful country in the world, economically, militarily and culturally.
It may be true that US presidents can be constrained by Congress but when it comes to foreign affairs and global influence, it is the president who determines America’s impact on the rest of the world.
He or she is not only the leader of a powerful nation but also the de facto leader of the West in a world where Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have set themselves up as an unholy anti-Western alliance.
So, what should we want from Donald Trump in his second term of office?
Firstly, a strong America is the best guarantor of Western security.
We need a president willing to pursue a hard-headed approach to dealing with tyrants and despots in the world.
They need to know that if they aspire to pose a threat, they will pay a heavy personal and economic price, which will ultimately damage their authority and credibility with their own people.
While recent history teaches us that putting Western troops on the ground in hostile terrain should be a last resort only to be considered in extenuating circumstances, the option of other forms of action against rogue regimes must always remain in play.
US presidents have every right to demand NATO members fairly share the financial burden but there also should be unwavering support for this alliance and its central importance to our shared security.
It is to be hoped that President Trump offers this support and drives a hard bargain with Russian President Vladimir Putin prior to his often stated commitment to immediately end the war against Ukraine.
This matters for the Ukrainian victims of Putin’s aggression but also for the Russian leader’s future behavior and the message it will send to other regimes tempted to engage in acts of aggression and intimidation.
Based on his first term in office, there should be optimism that Israel and the cause of peace in the Middle East will benefit from a Trump presidency.
It is impossible to predict what may happen in the period between now and the Presidential inauguration in January.
Trump supports Israel
However, we know President-elect Trump will have a total commitment to the release of the Israeli hostages and the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah – which means they will no longer have the capacity to terrorize Israel on any border.
As he sought to do previously, he should also champion a new plan for the Palestinians that provides them with hope and dignity alongside a vision for self-determination.
This has to recognize that there is no longer a democratic mandate in Israel for a solution based on 1967 borders and majority Palestinian opinion believing in a one-state solution where Israel would become Palestine with no Jewish identity.
So, once again, Trump and his team will need to engage in fresh thinking and reject the majority of Western opinion that calls for a solution which is a cruel deception as it can’t be delivered and in reality is opposed by the majority on both sides.
The biggest global challenge for the new president will be the threat posed by the Iranian regime.
This will require a strategy that provides it with a final ultimatum on its nuclear program and sponsorship of global terrorism. In his first term, Donald Trump rightly withdrew the US from the flawed nuclear deal.
It should be made clear to the regime that if it fails to change course, the US will lead an alliance that will use a combination of economic sanctions and targeted military action to attack the regime and its forces of internal oppression.
This will create the conditions that will empower the Iranian people to bring down a regime that 80% of them despise. Such an alliance is preferable to Israel having to continue to take sole responsibility for dealing with a regime that threatens the security of the Middle East and the world.
The new president will be under no illusions that Israel will have to act alone if necessary as a nuclear Iran is an existential threat to her survival.
Also based on his first term, there should be optimism that reelected president Trump will step up to the plate with NATO allies and the tacit support of Gulf states to provide the leadership that is long overdue.
This in itself will send the strongest possible message to the Iranian people that they will not be sacrificed or abandoned. We will support them as they reclaim and rebuild their proud country.
HAVING DEVELOPED the groundbreaking Abraham Accords, Trump is fully aware that there is a great prize to be won from this comprehensive strategy.
It will almost certainly lead to Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel and, in turn, the vast majority of Muslim majority countries will do the same.
The perennial running sore which has poisoned Muslim-Jewish relations and the Islamist fundamentalist threat to the West will be consigned to history.
Making peace a reality
Peace will be a reality, not a pipe dream, with violent extremism limited to a tiny minority on the fringe.
Finally, the new president’s economic policies will directly impact our economy and others around the world.
Any leader has a primary duty to their own citizens and the interests of their nation. However, the president of the world’s biggest economy should also have regard for maintaining global stability, which significantly depends on people’s standard of living.
It is to be hoped that President-elect Trump balances measures such as imposing tariffs on goods from China and elsewhere with a plan to avoid unintended consequences which can have a detrimental impact on ordinary people’s standard of living and undermine his policy objectives to create jobs and wealth.
May God bless America in the leadership it provides and respect from all parties for the democratic will of the people.
God bless America so that President-elect Trump will show the moral courage and integrity the world desperately needs in these challenging times.
The writer is a former UK minister for the Middle East.