US President-elect Donald Trump chose strong supporters of Israel in a series of appointments announced last week.
They include Marco Rubio as secretary of state, Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense, Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel, Rep. Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN, Steve Witkoff as special envoy to the Middle East, Mike Waltz as national security adviser, Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence, Lee Zeldin to head the EPA, and Elon Musk to head a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Although the appointments have been hailed by Israel advocates, especially those on the Right, as comprising “a dream team” for both the United States and the Jewish state, the Israeli government must brace itself for a future in which the new Trump administration could be warm and supportive, but also tight and tough.
Ultimately, the administration will act in accordance with American interests, not Israel’s, and it might be more difficult for Israel to turn down Trump’s Republican team than the Democratic administration of President Joe Biden.
Let’s start with the clear message Trump himself has conveyed: Before his inauguration on January 20, Israel must end the current war, which was launched against Hamas in Gaza after the October 7, 2023, atrocity but has now expanded to at least six more fronts – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, terrorist groups in Iraq, Syria and the West Bank, and of course, Iran.
Yet it is not in Israel’s interest to end the war until its primary goals have been achieved – one of them being the return of the hostages. With Qatar withdrawing and Russia seeking to play a mediating role, this could be a tricky tightrope for both Washington and Jerusalem to maneuver.
Israel prepares Lebanon ceasefire plan
Several press reports, including one in The Washington Post, have suggested that Israel is preparing a Lebanon ceasefire plan as a “gift” to Trump, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dispatched Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to the US to work out the details. Two people close to Trump in this regard are Lebanese-born Christian billionaire Massad Boulos and his son Michael, who married Trump’s daughter Tiffany in November 2022.
One of the main missions of Trump’s team, and particularly his Middle East envoy, will be to expand the historic Abraham Accords that his first administration mediated, and bring Saudi Arabia into the fold to make it the most powerful bloc of nations in the region against the “Axis of Resistance.”
It is also likely to resuscitate the “Deal of the Century,” authored by a team headed by Trump’s senior adviser and Jewish son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
While Trump’s new team might go as far as supporting Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and what former US ambassador David Friedman calls “One Jewish State” in his new book, it could also revert to the annexation of settlements combined with the establishment of a Palestinian state envisioned in the 2020 peace plan.
In April, the Biden administration signed $14.3 billion in emergency security assistance for Israel, and in September, approved an $8.7 billion aid package, including $3.5 billion for wartime procurement and $5.2 billion for defense systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling.
While Trump might maintain such a high level of security aid provided by the US to Israel, he could also cut it or use it as a way to pressure the Jewish state. This might become an issue for Israel in 2026, when the 10-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by former president Barack Obama expires.
Perhaps most important of all will be the Trump administration’s policy on Iran. High-level sources told The Wall Street Journal that the president-elect intends to reinstate his “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, under the leadership of its original architect, Brian Hook.
At the heart of Trump’s foreign policy is the aspiration to end wars and expand peace initiatives in conflict zones, including the Middle East, a policy endorsed by supporters of an isolationist “America First” policy such as JD Vance, who will be vice president.
The bottom line is that while Israel can allow itself to be pleased with the make-up of the new Trump team, it should also be cautious.