Israel’s deal with Hezbollah in Lebanon will severely complicate – and potentially undermine – negotiations for the release of the hostages in Gaza.
As Israel ends the war with Hezbollah, enabling its citizens to return to their homes in the North, the terms agreed to with the terrorist group will inevitably be seen by Hamas as the precedent for releasing Israel’s hostages. Accepting anything less than what Hezbollah achieved would cause scorn for Hamas among Palestinians as well as the broader Muslim world.
Comparing what Israel is giving Hezbollah in Lebanon with Israel’s redlines in Gaza, the danger becomes clear. In Lebanon, in exchange for international supervision, Israel is offering a complete withdrawal and a return to many pre-war conditions, allowing villages that previously concealed terror infrastructure and tunnels to be rebuilt and repopulated. The Jewish state has rejected international supervision in Gaza, declaring that it must maintain control of strategic locations such as the Philadelphi Corridor and prevent reconstruction of infrastructures near the border. All of these are positions that Hamas will now have to reject based on the Lebanon precedent – or be dishonored as weaker than Hezbollah.
Another Hezbollah achievement is maintaining its status quo in Lebanon. There is no demand by Israel to further dismantle its military or political power. This stands in direct contrast to one of Israel’s fundamental objectives of the Gaza war: the complete dismantling of Hamas’s political and military capabilities. Hamas will now point to the Hezbollah precedent and demand similar Israeli concessions for releasing the hostages.
Reinforcing Hamas’s strategy of intransigence
The process leading to this deal sends Hamas another problematic message. The terrorist group has watched Israel modify its positions under the weight of American pressure and internal discord. Reports have even called this agreement Israel’s go-away present to Biden. This will only reinforce Hamas’s strategy of intransigence. Why compromise when they can wait for Biden, Trump, and the political pressure at home to do their work? Especially since the passage of time is lethal for the hostages, while Hamas with the continuous stream of humanitarian aid coming in, has all the time in the world.
We can expect to hear Hamas reiterate its demands very shortly: “We will not release the hostages without receiving the same conditions that Hezbollah received – end of the war, complete Israeli withdrawal, and rebuilding up to the border.” Accepting these would mean that the goal of dismantling Hamas’s political power and military will not have been achieved. Hamas will be seen as the victor by all Palestinians, solidifying its position as the unchallenged power not only in Gaza but in Judea and Samaria as well.
In a few years, not only will Hamas be on the way to returning Gaza to its position on October 6, 2023, but it will be well on the way to achieving the same dominance throughout the West Bank. This is unthinkable for Israel.
When negotiating the end of this two-front war, Israel should have recognized that every concession to Hezbollah will become a precedent and a demand of Hamas. The tragedy is that in seeking to stabilize the North so 80,000 citizens can return to their homes, Israel may be irreparably undermining the return of the hostages, the most fundamental reason for the year-long war in Gaza. Whereas Israel can continue the war indefinitely and may eventually succeed in destroying Hamas’s infrastructures, time is the one fundamental commodity that for the hostages is quickly running out.
The writer is the director of Palestinian Media Watch.