Hopes for the release of the hostages held by Hamas have been raised and cruelly dashed so often over the last 433 days that it would be irresponsible to think this time will be any different.
Still, some recent developments – Hamas’s handing over a list of hostages and Shin Bet (Israeli Security Agency) head Ronen Bar and Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi traveling to Cairo for talks – indicate there is some motion.
Whether that motion can be translated into actual movement and whether Hamas will show flexibility – US National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said on Tuesday that the terrorist organization was the obstacle to a deal – is still to be determined.
Nevertheless, renewed negotiations and talk about a possible deal is, after months of neither, still something.
While the exact contours of the proposed deal are vague, the agreement under discussion would be a partial one – rather than a comprehensive deal carried out in stages.
According to Arab media outlets, Hamas gave Egypt a list of 30 hostages who would be released during an initial 60-day ceasefire, at a rate of one hostage every two days.
These hostages include those who meet so-called “humanitarian” criteria, meaning those over 50 or who suffer from health problems.
The release of the remaining hostages, including soldiers, would be negotiated during the 60-day ceasefire period.
Hamas also gave a list of the terrorists it wants Israel to release as part of the deal.
Of the 256 hostages Hamas kidnapped on October 7, 96 of them remain in captivity, including the bodies of 34 people confirmed dead by the IDF.
One hundred and five hostages were released during a temporary truce in November 2023, another four were released before this truce, and eight have been rescued by IDF troops, bringing to 117 the number of hostages released over the last 14 months.
The IDF has also recovered the bodies of 38 hostages who were either killed in captivity or murdered on October 7 and whose bodies were taken into Gaza.
Families of hostages continue their fight
Among the families of the hostages, there are those, such as Einav Zangauker, the mother of Matan, who are opposed to a partial deal, saying that agreeing to release only some of the hostages is essentially sentencing those remaining, like her son, to death.
While we fully empathize with Zangauker and cannot fathom the depth of her ongoing pain and concern, we believe that if there is a deal on the table now that will bring any of the hostages home, it is something that should be taken.
This is not abandoning those who will remain in cruel captivity, but rather saving those – the elderly and the ill – for whom every additional day in captivity endangers their lives. Israel must insist that the deal is structured in such a way that Hamas will have much to lose if, after releasing the 30 hostages on the list, it does not go forward and free the rest in further stages.
The motion regarding the hostages did not come out of nowhere; instead, it was triggered by the shifting sands in the region that were not favorable to Hamas.
The ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, means that Hamas is as isolated and cut off as it has ever been. Looking around the region, the terrorist organization can see no one coming to its rescue.
Furthermore, Hamas’s state supporters, Qatar and Turkey, are keen on getting on the good side of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has let it be known that he expects the hostages to be released by the time he enters office on January 20 or there would be “all hell to pay in the Middle East.”
With Hamas in Gaza largely defanged as evidenced by its desperate rocket launches on Wednesday to flex muscle ahead of negotiations – and with Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran showing no interest or capacity to come to its aid, the chances of brokering a deal now appear better than in recent weeks. The addition of Trump’s deadline, accompanied by a clear warning, adds further pressure.
While these developments are encouraging, the hard and painful truth remains that a hostage deal with Hamas can only be believed when seen.