A few months into the Israel-Hamas War, it became apparent that Israel had vastly underestimated the complexity and length of Hamas’s underground tunnel terror network. Some estimates claimed there were 1,130 km. of tunnels, many at different depth levels, which were designed to force the Israeli enemy to fight within them on unfavorable terms.
I wrote then that I thought the most logical strategy to destroy Hamas and its terror tunnel dens was to temporarily evacuate Gazan civilians from designated areas, so that the IDF could go in and destroy Hamas’s infrastructure in the evacuated areas.
Unfortunately for Gazan civilians, that might have entailed demolishing many above-ground buildings, because the terror infrastructure was constructed like an infiltrating cancer, above and below ground, with tunnel shafts running through homes, mosques, hospitals, and schools.
When I was asked where the civilians should go, I said the best choice would be to transfer them to secured tent cities in the Egyptian Sinai and Israel’s Negev, in addition to the humanitarian areas along the Gaza coast.
I was told this was impossible because the Egyptians would refuse, and Israelis would be in no mood so close to October 7 to have hundreds of thousands of Gazans brought into the Jewish state, knowing how many participated in the massacres. You can also understand the Egyptian unwillingness, considering that Hamas is the Muslim Brotherhood, the arch-enemy of the Sisi military regime.
I responded that was this is where American leadership was needed, but unfortunately, President Joe Biden had transitioned into his deescalation and blaming Israel mode, slowing shipments of vital weapons to Israel.
This, in effect, prolonged the war and put Israel on the diplomatic and military defensive, being forced to stop their advance south to the Philadelphi Corridor and Rafah, Hamas’s supply line. At the time, I maintained that the Biden administration should leverage American financial aid with additional carrots to the impoverished Egyptian economy to accept this temporary situation, and as a quid pro quo, Israel would also have to accept Gazans in exchange for ending the slowdown of military supplies from the US.
Israel's quagmire
ISRAEL’S LACK of a specific day-after plan for Gaza has left the Jewish state and its military in a quagmire. It has become clear that Israel has chosen not to make the destruction of the underground terror network its primary mission.
Every time Israel clears a Hamas stronghold and withdraws, the terrorists reemerge from the remaining tunnel system to force Israel to return and play whack-a-mole again and again and again.
Without a comprehensive military plan to destroy the tunnel system, the IDF will remain in Gaza for many years as the terrorists of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas come out of their terror mazes to fight a long war of attrition and wear out the Israeli nation’s morale. This is akin to the 18-year Israeli-Lebanese occupation (1982-2000) that eventually, under public opinion, forced Israel to leave as losers, emboldening Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, who all play the long game.
Israel, as a citizen army, is not prepared for long wars of attrition. If this becomes similar to Ithe 18-year war of attrition in Lebanon, it will require the sacrifice of soldiers being disabled and killed in Gaza for years.
There has been a relatively effective war of attrition in the West Bank since 2003 after the Second Intifada, which is why Judea and Samaria haven’t exploded sooner. It has brought 20 years of relative control. Yet today, the West Bank is more under Iranian influence than ever before, another growing proxy threat on Israel’s doorstep, 9 km. from Tel Aviv. That will happen in Gaza, too, if this option is chosen.
Suppose Israel’s choice is to control Gaza for the next generation, as it does the West Bank, going in every night extracting terrorist networks to keep the flames of terror and missile attacks low.
In that case, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should tell the Israeli people this is the chosen plan. It is not unreasonable, considering the choices include a return of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which the current Israeli government and most Israelis, as well as non-Hamas Palestinians, do not trust, with good reason.
The PA security forces are incapable at this time of fighting Hamas due to a combination of lack of training, lack of will to confront a much more motivated and better trained Hamas army, and because many non-Hamas Palestinians also desire the annihilation of the Jewish state.
Think of a PA security force in Gaza like the Syrian army at the end of 2024, which collapsed immediately, with the Sunni jihadist rebels of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) taking over the nation in just a few days.
For a modern democracy, war requires a civilian-directed policy with defined military goals, and it is up to the army to fulfill the mission. Until this point, the army has done an excellent job in Gaza, even without a concrete political plan to destroy Hamas definitively.
There is one plan circulating to destroy Hamas in northern Gaza called the “General’s Plan,” designed by the respected former head of the National Security Council, Gen. Giora Eiland. It would evacuate all Palestinian civilians from northern Gaza, creating a military zone with only the terrorists remaining to fight a battle between combatants. But it would not be on Hamas’s terms using the Palestinian civilians as human shields.
According to the diplomatic and political analyst at Israel Hayom, “Members of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee… argue that the ground operation that began on October 27, 2023 fails to achieve the war’s objectives as defined by the political echelon – dismantling Hamas’s governmental and military capabilities.” It should be noted that Netanyahu rejected the General’s Plan on October 1.
Over time, Israel can transition to an Arab and international governing and security force, with the return of the Gazan civilians to a restored infrastructure without a terror tunnel network.
The incoming Trump administration wants Israel’s wars wrapped up quickly. The further supply of weapons for Israel to fight a war of attrition with Hamas should not be counted on indefinitely, especially with many in the new administration looking to cut foreign aid.
So, Bibi, it’s time to rise to the occasion and define a plan for destroying Hamas so that the nation and Trump can get behind it. Do it quickly and implement it expeditiously to keep president-elect Trump on board, as he likes winners. Do it before the victories over Hezbollah and Iran fade in the American mind, and Israel looks like it is adrift without a strategy in a war of attrition in Gaza.
The writer is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN), and the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs members of Congress and their foreign policy aides.