Israel must prepare for potential war with Turkey, the Nagel Committee has warned in its recent report, emphasizing the gravity of a rising threat that could reshape the region’s strategic landscape.
This warning underscores the urgency of addressing an evolving challenge that demands immediate attention. The catastrophic failure of October 7 has forced Israel to grapple with existential challenges. Chief among them is Iran’s acceleration toward nuclear deterrence.
Yet, as Israel navigates this perilous moment, it faces another formidable adversary – a rising neo-Ottoman Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With its growing economic and military strength, Turkey represents a strategic challenge that surpasses Iran in scale and complexity. This evolving threat demands a comprehensive strategy that begins with reforming Israel’s national security apparatus.
Erdogan’s ambitions are no longer confined to rhetoric. They are manifesting in actions that encroach closer to Israel’s borders. Through military involvement in Syria, the expansion of its navy, and an assertive presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey’s posture signals a desire to dominate the region.
Complicating matters is Turkey’s NATO membership and its military tradition rooted in the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk – founder of the Republic of Turkey – which amplify its strategic weight. Israel cannot afford complacency; it must act decisively to prepare for this emerging challenge.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has made strides in addressing its security needs, learning through the adversity of a seven-front war. Since that black Saturday, it has focused on building a robust force structure capable of countering state adversaries, bolstering defense industrial independence, and recognizing the foundational threat posed by jihadist ideologies.
These measures are critical, but they fall short of addressing the Turkish threat. Turkey’s advanced military capabilities, economic resilience, and influential standing on the global stage require a long-term strategy that not only manages emergencies but also deters conflict over time.
To meet the Turkish challenge, Israel must compete in three critical arenas. Its economic development must match Turkey’s larger GDP to sustain long-term competition. Israel needs to enhance its ability to project power across sea, air, and land to counter Turkey’s expansive ambitions.
Additionally, Israel must communicate effectively to the region, the West, and the global community why Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman agenda undermines collective stability and progress.
Abraham Lincoln’s adage, “If I had to cut a tree down in seven hours, I would spend the first three sharpening the axe,” is particularly apt for Israel today. Sharpening the axe means prioritizing effective leadership and decision-making. Currently, Israel’s national security processes are fragmented, lacking transparency, accountability, and strategic coherence. Addressing these deficiencies is an urgent first step.
Israeli national security decision-making remains disproportionately dominated by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Over time, the military has hollowed out what should be a political process, reducing elected leaders to secondary roles. Instead of serving as advisors, the IDF has become the de facto driver of national security policy. This imbalance undermines the civilian leadership’s ability to set and execute long-term strategies.
The creation of the National Security Council (NSC) in the mid-1990s under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was intended to counterbalance the IDF’s dominance. However, the NSC has achieved limited success. It often serves as a policy task force for the prime minister rather than a robust strategic body.
The root of the issue lies in information control: The IDF and intelligence agencies tightly manage the flow of information, limiting the NSC’s capacity to challenge or complement their assessments and insure decision implementation by the political leadership to the national-security apparatus.
The infamous Feldstein leaks – the passing of classified intelligence information to the foreign press – exemplify how this dynamic hampers accountability and transparency in a politicized IDF sensitive to its failures on October 7.
To build a functional and accountable national security apparatus, Israel must undertake targeted reforms. The NSC’s mandate must be clearly defined to avoid overlaps with the Defense Ministry and intelligence agencies. Legislation should formalize the NSC’s authority over interagency coordination and strategic planning, ensuring its recommendations carry significant weight.
A permanent unit within the NSC should be established to focus exclusively on long-term planning for emerging challenges such as hybrid warfare, regional instability, and economic disruptions. Additionally, regular scenario planning exercises should be conducted to prepare for contingencies, including military conflicts, economic crises, and technological threats.
The clock is ticking.
Recent developments underscore the urgency of these reforms. Turkey’s construction of advanced naval assets, including submarines, destroyers, and an aircraft carrier, demonstrates its ambitions.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Defense Ministry has announced investments in domestic industries to produce air-to-ground missiles and tank shells. The disparity is stark: Turkey builds aircraft carriers while Israel focuses on equipping its tanks. Without strategic foresight, Israel risks falling behind and relying on external support in times of crisis.
Israel’s democratic vibrancy, characterized by its spirited Knesset debates, frequent elections, and active protest movements, is a source of strength. Yet, in many ways, the representative system hastily established in 1948 remains fragile and dysfunctional. While most Israelis acknowledge the need for reform, progress requires decisive and energetic leadership.
The road ahead is steep, but the first step in addressing the Turkish challenge lies in empowering Israel’s leadership with adequate forums for strategic decision-making. Reforming the NSC is not just a bureaucratic necessity but a strategic imperative. Leadership is fundamentally about solving problems and without this foundational change, broader reforms to Israel’s democratic and economic systems will be stymied, delayed, and more often than not, falter.
The Knesset must act swiftly to equip Israel’s leaders with the tools to set policy to meet the challenges posed by a resurgent Turkey and other emerging threats endemic to the ever-shifting sands of the Middle East. The time to sharpen the axe is now.
The writer is a co-founder of Jewish National Initiative and a hi-tech executive.