The implementation of the hostage deal on Sunday has evoked a wide range of powerful emotions among Israelis and Jews worldwide. Everyone wants to see the hostages (all of them) return home. Simultaneously, the Israeli public, shaped by past experiences, understands the heavy price of releasing murderers and the severe security consequences such releases can entail.
This deal inevitably brings back memories of the 2011 Gilad Shalit exchange, where over 1,000 terrorists were freed, including Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar. The catastrophic consequences of that deal directly influenced the events of October 7.In recent weeks, I have been asked repeatedly whether I support or oppose the deal. The complex reality before us cannot be reduced to black-and-white answers.The country is engaged in a war of independence that will shape its future for generations. In this war, we must prevail on all fronts, particularly in Gaza, where three clear objectives have been set: Eradicating Hamas as a military and governing entity, bringing all hostages home, and ensuring Gaza never again becomes a base for terror.
At this moment, the conditions are ripe to secure the release of a significant number of hostages, particularly women, children, and others who are categorized in the framework of humanitarian cases. This is a crucial step and a moral obligation for Israel toward those it failed to protect on October 7. The deal also preserves Israel’s right to resume fighting after the 42-day ceasefire and ensures that the IDF maintains control over key perimeters in Gaza, including the Philadelphi Corridor, the eastern boundary along the fence (extending one kilometer into Gaza), and the northern perimeter near Sderot.
This arrangement limits Hamas’s ability to smuggle weapons and personnel from Sinai, a practice it has implemented for years.
Alternatively, Hamas will undoubtedly use this time to reorganize within Gaza, restore its command and control mechanisms, consolidate its resources, and stockpile significant humanitarian aid supplies, which will generate funds and facilitate recruitment efforts.
The deal also forfeits a critical leverage point for Israel – the prevention of Palestinian civilians from returning to northern Gaza. The reintegration of civilians into this area will complicate the IDF’s efforts if or when the fighting resumes.Additionally, releasing a large number of prisoners will allow Hamas to rebuild its leadership, which has been severely damaged during the war.What must be different from the Gilad Schalit deal?
The answer lies in Israel’s unwavering determination to resume the fight until Hamas is eradicated from Gaza. This is the only way to secure the return of the remaining hostages and achieve the other objectives of the war.In the next month and a half, the defense establishment must develop new operational strategies while leveraging the US’s commitment to support Israel and impose severe consequences on Hamas if they fail to release all hostages.
Frankly, after the first phase – releasing 33 hostages – if Hamas is not faced with effective and existential threats, it will be nearly impossible to persuade the organization to relinquish the one bargaining chip keeping it alive.The key to victory lies in separating the civilian population from Hamas, particularly regarding the distribution of humanitarian aid. Viable solutions include establishing humanitarian zones under Israeli control near the border, where Palestinians can receive aid without Hamas interference. The dispersal of the population from the coastal areas also aligns with this goal, turning what might seem like a disadvantage into an advantage.A long and complex campaign
Finally, the release of the hostages is a critical phase in a prolonged campaign in which the ultimate goal is victory over our enemies. As with every stage of this conflict, there are complex risks but also significant opportunities. Whether this deal was the right decision will be judged by history and by the Jewish state’s ability to achieve all its war objectives.
Brig. Gen. (Res.) Amir Avivi is the founder and chairman of IDSF.