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Will there be a war with Iran this summer? That is a good question, and based on the saber rattling going on right now in the Persian Gulf, it seems like it is a real possibility.Just look at the past week: Last Thursday, Iran allegedly attacked oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman; on Monday, Iran announced that it would soon breach the limits on its enrichment of uranium; on Tuesday, Katyusha rockets were fired – likely by Shia militias supported by Iran – at US military bases in Iraq; on Wednesday Netanyahu visited a massive IDF drill in the North during which he warned that Israel has significant destructive power; and early on Thursday morning, Iran shot down an advanced American military drone.On the surface, it seems like this is the tensest period in the region since 2012, when an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities seemed imminent.The question ultimately comes down to interests. Iran wants to get Europe, Russia and China to remain within the JCPOA, the 2015 nuclear deal it reached with the world superpowers and which Trump left last year.Trump, on the other hand, wants to get Iran to come back to the table to negotiate a better deal that would prevent the ayatollahs from ever getting their hands on a bomb. Israel has a double interest: it wants to make sure that Iran does not get a bomb, but it also wants to avoid an all-out war.The Iranian attacks in the Gulf and the downing of the drone put Trump in a difficult position. Tehran seems to think that Trump is boxed in and won’t use military force due to a variety of reasons: his reelection is coming up, the president anyhow doesn’t seem to believe much in military force, and Congress seems opposed as well. But the more they antagonize the president, the more pressure he will feel to do something. This could end up blowing up in everyone’s face.Whether Israel is dragged into a war will depend on the scope of what Trump does. If he simply orders an attack against the surface-to-air missile system that downed the drone, Iran might decide to contain the retaliation. But if Trump orders an extensive bombing of Iranian military and nuclear facilities, Hezbollah could be activated, and then Israel will find itself in a massive war with Lebanon.If the US does nothing though, Iran could interpret the lack of response as it having successfully deterred America, and decide to continue poking the US and the West. The path to war would only get shorter.In the end, neither side really wants a war, but as history has shown in the Middle East, sometimes that really doesn’t matter.