Recently, five drones attacked Erbil, capital of KRI. One drones fell in an area where the house of Masoud Barzani, leader of Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) is located. His party is the dominant party of the region. The attacks challenge US air supremacy. Moreover, Washington’s decision to reduce its anti-missile systems in the region, have paved the way for farther drone attacks.
Unlike the previous attacks, the recent ones are targeting residential areas and sensitive political buildings. Other attacks have only targeted remote US military bases in the deserts of Iraq. Targeting US bases inside Iraq’s economic hub in the north, is an obvious indication that Iraqi militia is assertive on expelling the American forces. Though, the attack was not the first of its kind.
In February, several rockets landed in the Erbil. It left an American contractor dead. Last year due to similar incident the US almost started a war with Iran. In late 2019 a Kurdish-American military contractor was killed. The US retaliated in the dawn of 2020 by assassinating Qasem Soleimani, the second most powerful man in Iran and commander of Quds force. The attack also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a prominent PMF commander. PMF leadership alleged to expel the US from Iraq.
To date, US President Joe Biden’s administration has retaliated only thrice. Moreover, killing Soleimani and Muhandis didn’t frighten the Iranian and Iraqi forces as Washington had hoped; on the contrary, it has emboldened them. Thus, Washington’s silence suggests its withdrawal from Iraq as well.
As a result, Iraqi parliament voted the US military out of the country. Washington didn’t respect parliament’s resolution. Iraqi militia responded by barrage of attacks on US bases across Iraq. Killing top Iranian and Iraqi commanders only revealed American weakness on the ground.
Gradually Washington’s military and diplomatic center of gravity relocated to KRI. In Erbil, the US is building the largest consulate in the world. Signifying that despite reducing its troops in the region it might just boost them in KRI. Leaders of KDP and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have formed close relations with Washington. KDP controls Erbil and Duhok governorates while PUK controls Sulaimaniyah governorate. KRI is a confederacy between KDP and PUK.
The US position in Iraq and Syria is dependent on assisting Kurds in Iraq. KRI is the last American stronghold in Iraq as is Rojava in Syria. Rojava’s only gate to the outside world is through Erbil-controlled Faysh Khabur border crossing. The US frequently replenishes them through the border crossing. Blocking Faysh Khabur will debilitate Rojava. Therefore, expelling US forces from Iraqi Kurdistan will also weaken its position both in Syria and the Middle East. It will also invite Turkey to carry out further incursions into Syria and Iraq.
KRI is grappling with many debacles. Many of which were caused by the US abandoning its Kurdish allies. Washington has always worked to build a strong KRI to balance Baghdad. For similar reasons it didn’t buttress KRI’s independence referendum of 2017. It permitted Iraqi troops to invade Kurdish-controlled, oil-rich city of Kirkuk. As a result, the US ally lost 50 percent of territories. It brought Iraqi troops closer to Erbil, and other Kurdish population centers. The setbacks facilitated the recent attacks.
Further, without Kirkuk’s oil revenues, the region is effectively held hostage as Baghdad refuses to fund its military and civilian expenses. A weak government in Erbil cannot guarantee hosting American presence in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The attacks occur at a time when the negotiations over KRI’s share of budget have come to a halt. Since 2014 Baghdad has imposed financial sanctions against the federal region. KRI employs more than 1.2 million out of 6 million citizens. They constitute almost 90 percent of the region’s economy. KRI counts on them for political support. As salaries are unpaid their support for KRI has waned. KRI has a young population and the region is in a dire demand for jobs which it can’t create. On the contrary, KRI continues to lose jobs. Even those employed are paid only a fraction of their salaries.
KRI has managed to contain the turmoil. Though, time is against it. The more negotiations last, the more its population becomes relentless. Ultimately, KRI is faced with two options: either submitting to Baghdad or voting American presence out of Erbil in exchange for retaining its authority. Both scenarios lead to the same conclusion, only at a different time.
The attacks have put the region’s security at stake, the only service that KRI could provide its embattled constituents. Their livelihood has become worse over the last seven years. As they live in a Hobbesian neighborhood, Iraqi Kurds praise their region’s security. The drones convey the message to KRI that giving refuge to US forces would leave their security and stability vulnerable.
Further, the region is dealing with mounting military pressure from all sides. Currently KRI is working to contain a war between Turkey and Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK). In fact, the KRI is on the brink of being dragged into a civil war with the PKK. Its Peshmerga forces are bogged down fighting a counter-insurgency war against a resurgent ISIS. Not to mention that Peshmerga lack weapons and ammunition Their salaries are paid months behind schedule.
What is more important, the mounting pressures have put the region’s unity at stake. Relations between KDP and PUK are at an all-time low. The PUK and other Kurdish parties have pushed for decentralizing the government. The move has the potential of aggravating Erbil’s already enfeebled position.
American assets and bases are located in Erbil. KDP holds key positions within the government of KRI. It controls the largest parliamentary group. Accordingly, voting American forces out of KRI rests on the KDP. These factors make KDP a crucial and vulnerable US ally at the same time.
Moreover, the US works to build a strong military for the region while its social and economic status is aggravating. Eventually, domestic pressure might move a bill to KRI’s parliament that doesn’t make Washington happy.
The attacks have increased as Pentagon is withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan and has planned a major reduction of its strategic Patriot antimissile batteries from Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries. Washington had downplayed the impact of this withdrawal on its position elsewhere. Or it might be an omen for withdrawing from Iraq. KRI might seem like a pawn in the American geopolitical game, though the US presence in much of the Middle East might depend on it.
The author is a researcher and journalist covering the Middle East. His work has been published in The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, E-International and various Kurdish magazines. He was the former editor in chief of Birst Newspaper. His work has been featured on TVs and translated into other languages. Currently, he is a researcher at Gorran Movement/Iraq.