Terror, like traffic fatalities, down with coronavirus, but not out
Over the last two weeks, meanwhile, no rockets or mortars were fired from the Gaza Strip toward Israel, and there was only one such attack in March, compared to 122 in February.
By HERB KEINONA man wearing a mask drives a motorbike near a roadblock set-up by police as they begin to enforce a national lockdown to fight the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on a road leading to Jerusalem, near Ein Hemed, Israel April 7, 2020.(photo credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
Since the first coronavirus case was diagnosed in Israel on February 27, the plague has dominated the news, pushing all else – politics, the Iranian threat, the Syrian front, Gaza, Palestinian terrorism, road accidents – to the sidelines.This was due partly because everything was overshadowed by COVID-19 and partly because less was happening – as a result of the virus – in all those other realms.Take traffic accidents, for instance. These are way down this year, obviously because there are far fewer cars on the roads since the government closed schools, limited work and closed all entertainment facilities on March 14. As a result, there have been 26% fewer deaths on the road this year (75) than during the comparable period last year (101).And the same is true of terrorist attacks, be it rockets or mortars from Gaza, or shootings, stabbings or car rammings in the West Bank. And that is why the 9:00 a.m. radio news Wednesday was so jarring: The first item was not about the virus, but rather a ramming and stabbing attack north of Jerusalem that sent one border policeman to the hospital with moderate wounds and left the terrorist dead.This was a stark reminder – as was the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) announcement Wednesday that it uncovered a terrorist cell that had planned to carry out attacks in Jerusalem and against soldiers in the West Bank – not to be lulled into complacency. The coronavirus may have led to a temporary drop in attacks from Gaza and in Judea and Samaria, but it has not magically created the conditions whereby the lion will begin grazing with the lamb.According to a report by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center on Palestinian terrorism for the two weeks from April 7-21: “The Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria have been relatively quiet because of the COVID-19 crisis. However, in Judea and Samaria, Palestinians continue throwing stones and Molotov cocktails at Israeli vehicles. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas continues the routine training of its elite units.”The center reported 10 incidents of rock and firebomb incidents on West Bank roads over the last two weeks, but – up until Wednesday’s incident – only two “significant attacks” since the beginning of March, an 80% decrease compared with the same period last year.Over the last two weeks, meanwhile, no rockets or mortars were fired from the Gaza Strip toward Israel, and there was only one such attack in March, compared with 122 in February, before the coronavirus outbreak. The virus is preoccupying everyone, including the terrorists.Obviously, however, this situation will not last forever. And while no conclusions can be drawn from Wednesday’s attack, and it would be foolish to see this as presaging a fresh wave of terrorism, there is definitely reason for the IDF and the security services to remain vigilant as a confluence of factors over the next few months could lead to an uptick in violence.The first factor is economic. In the months preceding the coronavirus outbreak, some 130,000 Palestinian laborers had permits to work inside Israel and the settlements, with tens of thousands more doing so illegally – pumping an estimated NIS 1 billion into the Palestinian economy every month.
Most of those people are now at home and out of work. If the situation continues for months, this could lead to anger, desperation and frustration that could be directed and vented toward Israel.Another factor is the diplomatic situation. If, as the agreement between Likud and Blue and White allows, the government brings legislation to the Knesset after July 1 to annex the settlements according to US President Donald Trump’s plan, it could lead to a spike in the violence.If before the coronavirus there were assessments that the West Bank street would not support an eruption of violence because most people do not want closures and IDF action to disrupt their lives, now that many lives have already been badly upended economically by the coronavirus, this could create a combustible situation that could feed terrorism. For the short term, therefore, COVID-19 may have tampered down violence, but the economic harm it is causing inside the PA could – with the right trigger – actually reignite it.
