A war with Israel would cripple Hezbollah even in its best-case scenario, so they are trying to avoid a full-blown conflict former national security adviser Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror told Zvika Klein on The Jerusalem Post Podcast.
Amidror explained that while Hezbollah and Iran want to retaliate against Israel following the death of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran as a show of force, the price Hezbollah would have to pay isn't in their best interests.
"They understand that they might end the war with great success, hitting the home front of Israel, killing Israelis, infrastructure, and so on and so forth. But Hezbollah will be much, much weaker afterwards, and this is not in the interest of Hezbollah [or] Iran," he said. "Hezbollah wants to keep its legitimacy in Lebanon, and they will lose a lot if they bring Lebanon to such a crisis."
Currently, Hezbollah has an extremely powerful position in Lebanon, effectively controlling the country.
"Hezbollah is the king maker in Lebanon," Amidror said, noting that if the terrorist organization doesn't approve of someone in power, they won't be in power.
"Hezbollah is stronger than all the other elements in Lebanon, including the Lebanese army," he continued. "No one can cope with it politically."
Hezbollah doesn't have Hamas's level of popular support
Despite this, however, Hezbollah's power isn't guaranteed, as they lack the widespread support Hamas enjoys among Palestinians.
"I think that if there will be real free elections in Lebanon tomorrow, Hezbollah will not win the majority," Amidror said.
"Hezbollah is raping Lebanon, it's not a love affair," he continued. "Hezbollah still wants to keep legitimacy in Lebanon, and devastating Lebanon after the war, even if Israel will suffer a lot, will not give them legitimacy within Lebanon."
Despite this, Hezbollah is still trying to escalate - just not to a full scale war.
"They are looking for something that can be clear to Israel: Don't mess with us," Amidror said. "This is supposed to be a reaction to the fact that we assassinated the number two of Hezbollah and, allegedly, Haniyeh in Tehran... So from their point of view, it's a reaction."