In 2023, Storm Daniel struck Libya, causing more than 12,300 deaths and was made 50 times more likely and 50 times more intense due to climate warming. This devastating event is part of a pattern identified by an international study from the research network World Weather Attribution (WWA), which reveals that climate change has intensified the ten deadliest extreme weather events over the past two decades, contributing to the deaths of more than 570,000 people.
The WWA's assessment highlights how climate change has made extreme weather events more intense and more likely. The ten deadliest cases of extreme weather from the past twenty years include three tropical cyclones, four heat waves, two floods, and a drought. Among these, the deadliest was a drought in Somalia in 2011, which is reckoned to have killed more than 250,000 people, with the low rainfall that drove the drought made more likely and extreme by climate change.
Cyclone Nargis, which hit Myanmar in 2008, caused more than 138,000 deaths and was made more intense by climate change. In 2007, Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh caused 4,234 deaths. In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines resulted in 7,354 deaths. These tropical cyclones were found to be among the ten deadliest events and were intensified by global warming.
Europe has faced well-documented heat waves in 2022 and 2023 that led to almost 94,000 deaths, including 53,542 deaths in 2022 and 37,129 deaths in 2023 across several countries. The 2015 heatwave in France, which caused more than 3,200 deaths, was made twice as likely by climate warming. In 2010, a heatwave in western Russia caused 55,736 deaths. The WWA's study found that the 2023 heatwave saw temperatures in the western Mediterranean that would have been "impossible" without climate change, highlighting the impact of human-induced climate change on extreme weather events.
In 2013, floods in Uttarakhand, India caused 6,054 deaths, and climate change also made these floods more likely and intense. These events demonstrate the fingerprints of climate change, which has worsened extreme weather events that have left more than 570,000 people dead.
Dr. Friederike Otto, co-founder and lead of World Weather Attribution at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, said: "Climate change isn't a distant threat." She added, "It worsened extreme weather events that left more than 570,000 people dead." Dr. Otto emphasized the urgent need for action, stating, "This study should be an eye-opener for political leaders hanging on to fossil fuels that heat the planet and destroy lives."
Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London, said, "Climate change has already made life incredibly hard and really dangerous, and we're only at 1.3 degrees of warming." Roop Singh from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre said, "The massive death tolls we keep seeing in extreme weather shows we are not well prepared for 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming, let alone 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius."
The scientists warned that some events are now so extreme that governments could reach the limits of adaptation. These extreme events will become more frequent as long as fossil fuel use continues to push up global temperatures, the researchers said. The risk of these weather disasters occurring has also increased due to climate change.
Among the recommendations made by these experts is the need to implement early warning systems that are truly effective, in addition to preparing cities and infrastructures for extreme events that will increase, including climate-proofing infrastructure such as dams and boosting resilience with measures like wetlands and green roofs.
Roop Singh said, "Every country needs to prepare for the future. Investing in early warning systems, updating outdated infrastructure, and reorienting our policies to support the most vulnerable are key actions that can drastically reduce the impacts of extreme weather." She also emphasized, "People must be warned in such a way that they understand the risk and have time to get to safety."
The scientists highlighted that the poorest and most vulnerable population groups suffer the most from extreme weather events. In heatwaves, the most vulnerable people are older individuals. In floods and storms, the most vulnerable people are individuals with disabilities or marginalized communities who lack access to information.
The WWA's research underscores how dangerous extreme weather events have already become with just 1.3 degrees Celsius of global warming above pre-industrial levels. The world is currently on track for 3 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century, a level recently described by UN chief Antonio Guterres as "catastrophic."
The scientists warned that the death toll from extreme weather events is a "major underestimate," as fatalities linked to heatwaves often go unrecorded, especially in poorer nations, with potentially millions of unreported heat-related deaths not included. Researchers say the real death toll from these events is likely to be significantly higher than the figures they quote.
Dr. Friederike Otto stated, "Dealing with climate change is not about targets, reports, or global meetings—it's about people." She emphasized that extreme weather events are "fueled" by climate change and that the fight against climate change is not a question of goals, reports, or global meetings; it is a question of people.
The WWA's study calls for urgent measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to protect vulnerable populations from the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events caused by climate change.
Sources: The Independent, The New York Times, Bloomberg Business, SvD.se, Aftonbladet, Sydsvenskan, science.ORF.at, Libération, O Globo, EL PAÍS, BBC
This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq