Global population growth is projected to continue well into the 21st century, with estimates suggesting the world's population will reach approximately 10.3 billion people by the mid-2080s, according to the United Nations. Currently standing at around 8.2 billion, this increase reflects ongoing demographic trends that, while slowing, continue to add numbers to the global count.
The Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung (DSW), a non-profit addressing population dynamics, noted that although the global population continues to rise, the pace at which it does so is diminishing. "After that, according to the forecasts, a declining number of births plus an increasing number of deaths will ensure that the world population not only ages but also begins to shrink," the DSW stated, as reported by Die Zeit.
In Africa, population is expected to more than double in the next two decades. Experts anticipate that by the end of the century, Africa's population will grow from today's 1.2 billion to approximately 3.4 billion people. This surge contrasts with declining fertility rates observed in many East Asian and European countries.
The role of women in shaping these demographic trends is pivotal. "When women are equal, have access to education and healthcare, economic independence, and their own political will, then families will automatically become smaller," Jan Kreutzberg, Managing Director of the DSW, explained, according to Die Welt. Education and sexual education are essential, empowering girls and young women to decide "when and with whom they have how many children."
Investing in girls' education is not only crucial for individual empowerment but also has an impact on fertility rates in developing countries. The United Nations Population Division highlighted that such investments can lower fertility rates, enabling women to determine their lives and family planning. This perspective underscores a broader strategy for managing global population growth through the promotion of gender equality and education.
Professor Mikko Myrskylä from the University of Helsinki offered an optimistic view regarding population concerns. "In a certain sense, the problem of population growth has been solved, as it will now come to an end," he said in an interview with STT, as reported by Helsingin Sanomat. "We just need to find ways as a global society to cope with a still somewhat growing population."
Different organizations hold slightly different views on what will happen over the next century, particularly concerning how education influences fertility rates. "Forecasts are still just forecasts, and the history of population forecasts is not very good," Myrskylä cautioned. It is crucial to consider the assumptions underlying these predictions, especially regarding the rapidity of fertility declines in regions where it remains high.
While concerns often arise about the impact of global crises on population development, historical evidence suggests these events have not altered long-term trends. "If you think about the last pandemic or even major conflicts, they have not had a decisive significance for the larger development picture," Myrskylä noted. Nonetheless, the future may present new challenges that could influence demographic patterns.
As the global population edges towards the 9 billion mark by 2037, according to United Nations estimates, the interplay between population growth and resource management becomes increasingly pertinent. Myrskylä estimated that humanity will manage resources as before, even with an additional two billion people. "We as a scientific community predicted for at least the last 70 years that if there are half a billion more people, it will lead to unprecedented catastrophes, famine, mass migrations, and so on. This has never happened," he stated.
This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq