A new study published in the journal Nature Aging suggests that humanity may be approaching the biological limit of human lifespan. Researchers found that despite continuous improvements in health and medical technology, there may be a maximum limit to human longevity.
The research, led by S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago, indicates that life expectancy improvements slowed over the past three decades, particularly after 2010, even in countries that have reached or approximated the hypothesized limits of life expectancy, as reported by ABC News.
"We're basically suggesting that as long as we live now is about as long as we're going to live," said Olshansky, according to The Washington Times. The study analyzed mortality and survival patterns in eight countries with high life expectancy, including Japan, France, Italy, Spain, Hong Kong, and the US.
Researchers found that life expectancy is no longer increasing in these wealthy countries, reported Fox News. Olshansky pointed out that modern medicine is yielding incrementally smaller improvements in longevity despite rapid advances. "These medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life even though they're occurring at an accelerated pace," said Olshansky, according to La Razón.
The study suggests that unless advances are made in modulating biological aging, reaching 100 years or more will remain an exception rather than the norm, according to Semana. In the analysis, Olshansky and his team examined patterns of mortality and survival in countries with high life expectancy and concluded that the possibilities of human life expectancy continuing to increase in the 21st century are very few.
"This paper represents the strongest empirical evidence supporting the need to slow aging," said Olshansky, emphasizing the importance of investing in aging research, according to Fox News. Other experts agree with the study's findings. "We are reaching a plateau," said Mark Hayward, a researcher at the University of Texas.
Eileen Crimmins, a gerontology expert at the University of Southern California, also supported the study's findings, emphasizing concerning trends in the United States, reported ABC News. The US, although included in the study, is not among the top 40 countries in terms of life expectancy, according to La Opinión. The stagnation in life expectancy in the US is attributed to several factors, including drug overdoses, armed violence, obesity, and lack of access to adequate healthcare, noted The Washington Times.
Despite medical advancements that eradicated many infectious diseases and improved chronic disease management, biological aging remains a barrier, as there are no safe and effective interventions that mitigate its impact on the organism at the cellular level, according to El Tiempo. Scientists are exploring approaches to extend human lifespan, including advances in biotechnology such as gene therapy and cell modification, but these methods are not yet a definitive solution to extend the biological limit, reported La Nación.
"While it is possible that more people will reach 100 years or more in this century, those cases will remain outliers that do not significantly increase the average life expectancy," insisted Olshansky, according to Business Insider. Some scientists do not rule out the possibility of living well beyond 122 years, but it does not seem likely that humans can live beyond 120 years, as reported by Grazia.
"The article is excellent and unequivocally establishes that the increase in life expectancy slowed down," said Steven Austad, a professor of biology at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, who has bet with Olshansky that a living human today will reach 150 years, according to El Mercurio. Jan Vijg, a professor of genetics at Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York, agreed and said that Olshansky's study was "well done," stating, "There's some sort of biological limit that keeps us from getting any older," reported The New York Times.
Not everyone agrees with Olshansky's conclusions. Nadine Ouellette, an associate professor of demography at the University of Montreal, said that average life expectancy "can sometimes be misleading" as it is heavily influenced by deaths in the early years of life, according to The New York Times. She recommended analyzing the age at which most people die, the so-called modal age of death, which focuses more on the later years of life.
Women continue to live longer than men, although the improvement in longevity is slowing down, reported La Opinión. The researchers emphasize the importance of investing in aging research and promoting a healthy lifestyle. "We should now shift our focus to efforts that slow aging and extend healthspan," said Olshansky, according to La Razón. Healthspan is a relatively new metric that measures the number of years a person is healthy, not just alive, as explained by La Razón.
"Take advantage of the social determinants of health—education and access to medical care—because these interventions work to increase the chances of living longer and healthier," said Olshansky, as reported by Fox News.
Dr. Luigi Ferrucci, scientific director at the National Institute on Aging, concurred that we are unlikely to see substantial increases in lifespan if the status quo is maintained, The New York Times reported. He added that investing more in preventive health could change that by delaying the onset of diseases, which in turn could result in "less of that damage that was due to the biology of aging," according to The New York Times.
The study opens the door to new possibilities: advances in gerotherapy, treatments designed to delay biological aging, could change the perspective on longevity, noted Semana. However, the researchers warn that these innovations will require deeper interventions than current ones. "Perhaps one day revolutionary anti-aging therapies will be developed that could change this," reported Grazia.
Meanwhile, the study's findings suggest that humanity is approaching a biological limit to aging, and there is no evidence to support the claim that most newborns today will live to be 100, according to La Razón. "This is profoundly bad advice because only a small percentage of the population will live that long in this century," said Olshansky, as reported by La Razón.
"Living longer means we're exposing ourselves to the currently immutable force of biological aging—which has already become the dominant risk factor for death in high-income countries," said Olshansky, according to Fox News. The researchers conclude that while extending human life remains a challenge, focusing on improving the quality of life in old age may offer immediate benefits, as efforts to enhance quality of life make more sense, reported El Tiempo.
The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.