The European Space Agency (ESA) has raised the estimated risk of impact of asteroid 2024 YR4. Current estimate is 2% impact risk, doubling previous assessments. The asteroid has been given a rating of 3 out of 10, indicating a "close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers."
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has drawn attention from the scientific community due to its potential risk of impacting Earth. Measuring 40-90 meters in diameter, 2024 YR4 poses a threat comparable to the Tunguska event of 1908, which flattened 80 million trees in Siberia. The asteroid's impact could cause regional devastation, making it imperative for scientists to monitor its path closely.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in December 2024, just two days after it passed relatively close to Earth at a distance of 830,000 kilometers, approximately 2.15 times the distance to the Moon. Its estimated diameter places it in the category of asteroids capable of causing regional disasters.
The asteroid's most concerning possible impact date is December 22, 2032, when the probabilities of collision are highest. Scientists anticipate that in April 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4 will be observable with greater precision, allowing adjustments to the calculations of its orbit.
"We have two scenarios here. If we see that the impact probabilities have not gone down in April, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group will decide if the asteroid is bigger than 50 meters—if it is not, the suggested solution is evacuation of the impact area," said Juan L. Cano of the ESA's Planetary Defence Office, according to Yahoo News. He emphasized the ongoing efforts to update calculations daily with new observations.
NASA has turned to the James Webb Space Telescope, the world's most powerful, to study asteroid 2024 YR4 and assess the potential damage if an impact were to occur. The agency aims to gather more precise data on the asteroid's size, composition, and trajectory to inform potential mitigation strategies.
Experts are exploring methods for planetary defense against asteroids like 2024 YR4. Kinetic impactors involve sending spacecraft to collide with an asteroid, altering its path through sheer momentum. NASA's DART mission in 2022 demonstrated the feasibility of this method, having altered the orbit of the 580-foot-wide asteroid Dimorphos by over 30 minutes, which researchers stated was "extremely effective."
Dr. Robin George Andrews warning that current deflection methods might not be sufficient to avert a possible collision. "While NASA's DART mission in 2022 demonstrated the feasibility of altering an asteroid's trajectory, it 'might not be able to stop 2024 YR4,' given its size and the limited time frame before its potential arrival," he said [https://www.news18.com/world/scientist-warns-city-killer-asteroid-may-be-too-late-to-deflect-nasa-on-high-alert-9225478.html].
"Many asteroids are not solid rocks but loose collections of sand, dirt, and boulders held together by weak gravity," explained Dr. Andrews. If an asteroid like 2024 YR4 is struck, it could break apart instead of changing direction, potentially sending smaller but still dangerous fragments toward Earth. He likened the scenario to "turning a cannonball into a shotgun spray," emphasizing the risks involved in attempting deflection without fully understanding the asteroid's composition.
Despite the slim odds of catastrophe, Dr. Andrews expressed concern that Earth could be in serious danger if asteroid 2024 YR4 is indeed on a collision course. "Planning, building, and carrying out a deflection mission could take 10 years or more," he pointed out, whereas the asteroid is expected to arrive in just eight years. The timeline raises questions about whether current technological capabilities are adequate.
"We have to be wary of trying to save the world but accidentally making the problem worse. Maybe we'll just have to get out of the asteroid's way this time," Dr. Andrews said in a social media post.
"Even if a deflection attempt worked, there might not be enough time to make a big difference," Dr. Andrews noted.
Other experts have proposed alternative methods, such as the gravity tractor technique, which utilizes the gravitational pull of a spacecraft to gently alter an asteroid's trajectory over time without explosives. Additionally, some suggest the use of nuclear devices to redirect an asteroid through controlled explosions if all other strategies fail, though this option carries political and legal implications.
"The nuclear device is not like you see in Armageddon where you send drillers to put the bomb in the core of the asteroid and destroy it—the idea is to detonate it at a certain distance from the asteroid," explained Ian Carnelli, a planetary defense expert at the European Space Agency, according to The Irish Sun.
"We cannot ignore this rock. It has the highest probability of impact I can recall. And it has the potential, the possibility for being an emergency for planet Earth," astronomers David Whitehouse told The Irish Sun. He suggested that emergency deflection measures may be needed to nudge the asteroid out of its orbit.
This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq