How does U.S. settlement decision impact coalition talks? - analysis
As dramatic as the announcement was, it’s not clear that it will do much in terms of untangling our current political knot.
By LAHAV HARKOVUS Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in Jerusalem, October 18 2019(photo credit: AMOS BEN-GERSHOM/GPO)US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s announcement that the US no longer considers Israeli towns in Judea and Samaria to be illegal was a dramatic one, reversing the position that the State Department has held for over four decades.And it was made at a dramatic time, after an unprecedented two elections in one year, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failing to put together a coalition twice and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz having two days left until his deadline for the third attempt at forming a government.But, as dramatic as the announcement was, it’s not clear that it will do much in terms of untangling our current political knot.Some political pundits have conjectured that since the State Department changed its position, Netanyahu will officially annex the Jordan Valley on Tuesday or Wednesday. It would either be a parting shot, in case Gantz forms a minority government, or an opening salvo to a unity government or third election campaign in less than a year.This would arguably be a bad idea even for those who support applying Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria, because it would put the whole Jordan Valley at risk of lawsuits over such a major decision being made by an interim government.But even if that were to happen, it doesn't seem like it would move the dial much on coalition negotiations.The vast majority of the responses from MKs to the news was very positive; leaders of factions making up 96 out of the Knesset’s 120 seats were in favor of Pompeo’s declaration.This just shows how small the Israeli Left has become.The groundswell of support should not be a surprise to anyone who’s been paying attention. Netanyahu made a promise shortly before September’s election that he would apply Israeli sovereignty to the Jordan Valley after the election – and of course, everyone to his Right applauded him.But even before that, Blue and White put recognition of the Jordan Valley in its platform.
So this changes nothing in terms of whether there will be a national unity government, because its potential core participants agreed in the first place that settlements are not illegal and that at least some should remain part of Israel in perpetuity. At most, if a unity government is not formed, it will give the sides a chance to say in an election campaign that the other is not taking advantage of a historic opportunity.Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman, the would-be kingmaker, is among the pro-settlement votes, and is a resident of Nokdim in Gush Etzion. His reticence to join a right-wing coalition has nothing to do with settlement policy; the differences he has in matters of religion and state remain.The place where this could change something is in the minority government option, which has always been and still is a long shot, regardless of the latest news.The parties to the Left of Blue and White - Labor-Gesher, the Democratic Union and the Joint List - oppose the move. Some, like Labor leader Amir Peretz, avoid commenting on the legality of the settlements, saying only that it hurts chances for a two-state solution and peace. Others, like MKs in the Joint List, call Israel an apartheid state and the settlements an “illegal colonialist enterprise on Palestinian land.”They would obviously not be happy with Gantz’s approving message after Pompeo’s announcement. Were Gantz to build a minority government depending on the Joint List’s votes, he would have to backtrack and certainly give up on any annexation plans.Blue and White might be able to compromise on this matter, since a decent number of its MKs are anyway not in favor of annexing land outside of a peace treaty – but this is just another way in which Yisrael Beytenu would have trouble working in a political constellation that includes the Joint List and even the Democratic Union, the party which is mainly Meretz.As such, it’s hard to see that much, if anything, will change politically as a result of Pompeo’s announcement.
